Economic Expectations Remain Subdued

27.02.2023

Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of February 2023

The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) show a slight deterioration in the economic assessments of Austrian companies in February. The WIFO Business Climate Index stood at 5.6 points (seasonally adjusted), 0.8 points below the value of the previous month (6.4 points). The decline is mainly due to the weakening of economic indicators in the construction industry and services, while economic indicators in manufacturing improved at a low level. Business expectations signal a continuation of the sideways economic movement in the coming months. Companies' demand for credit increased in February, but as in the autumn, companies are more restrictive in their assessment of banks' willingness to lend than in previous years.

The index of current business situation assessments declined slightly in February (–0.3 points), but remained in positive territory at 11.1 points. In manufacturing, which is particularly sensitive to economic developments, however, the situation index gained 1.2 points compared with the previous month and, at 3.6 points, rose slightly further into positive territory. In the construction industry, the situation index lost 2.6 points, but remained well above the zero line at 15.2 points. In the service sectors, the index lost 1.1 points compared with the previous month, but with a value of 16.0 points still signals confident economic assessments. In the retail sector, the situation index rose by 0.6 points to 2.8 points and, as in the previous month, was just in positive territory.

The index of business expectations for the economy as a whole lost 1.0 points in February and stood at 0.3 points, close to the zero-line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade, the expectations index lost 0.2 points and remained deep in sceptical territory at –18.5 points. In the service sectors, the expectations index lost 1.7 points and stood at 2.0 points. In the construction industry, the expectations index fell by 4.7 points, but remained in the optimistic range at 19.7 points. However, this high figure is partly due to the continued high construction price expectations. Business expectations in the construction industry remained in negative territory. In manufacturing, which was particularly affected by the energy price increases, the expectations index showed a slight recovery (+1.3 points). However, the index was still in the pessimistic range at –4.7 points.

 

Publications

Weiterhin gedämpfte Konjunkturerwartungen. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Februar 2023 (Economic Expectations Remain Subdued. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of February 2023)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2023, (2), 14 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 27.02.2023 14:00
Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests zeigen im Februar eine leichte Verschlechterung der Konjunkturbeurteilungen der österreichischen Unternehmen. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex notierte mit 5,6 Punkten (saisonbereinigt) 0,8 Punkte unter dem Wert des Vormonats (6,4 Punkte). Der Rückgang ist vor allem auf die Abschwächung der Konjunkturindikatoren in der Bauwirtschaft und den Dienstleistungen zurückzuführen, während sich die Konjunkturindikatoren in der Sachgütererzeugung auf niedrigem Niveau verbesserten. Die unternehmerischen Erwartungen signalisieren eine Fortsetzung der konjunkturellen Seitwärtsbewegung in den nächsten Monaten. Die Kreditnachfrage der Unternehmen stieg im Februar an, jedoch schätzen die Unternehmen die Bereitschaft der Banken zur Kreditvergabe wie bereits im Herbst restriktiver ein als in den Vorjahren.
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Dr. Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial, Innovation and International Economics
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net