COVID-19 Slows Down Economic Recovery

27.11.2020

WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2020

The economic assessments of Austrian companies declined in November in the course of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions. The WIFO business climate index fell by 5.2 points and was more clearly in negative territory with –14.7 points. Companies assessed the current economic situation worse and business expectations for the coming months became more sceptical. The economic assessment was particularly pessimistic in tourism, transport and consumer goods industries.

The index of current assessments of the overall economic situation decreases in November (excluding seasonal fluctuations) by 3.4 points to –12.5 points. However, significant differences can be seen across sectors. In the service sectors, the index fell by 5.0 points to –17.4 points, which puts it clearly back into negative territory. In the construction industry, the situation index shows only a slight decrease of 0.9 points. However, at 8.6 points, the index is still in positive territory. For the manufacturing sector, the situation index lost 1.7 points, and at –11.7 points is still in sceptical territory.

The expectations of Austrian companies have deteriorated across all sectors compared to the previous month. The index of business expectations lost 7.1 points in November and is still in the sceptical range at –16.9 points. In the construction industry alone, despite a decline of 4.2 points, the expectation index is at 2.7 points still above the zero line separating negative from positive expectations. In the service branches, the expectation index lost 8.2 points and, at –20.4 points, is now in line with the spring figures. The expectations index for the manufacturing sector also lost considerable momentum (–6.1 points) and is now clearly in negative territory at –17.5 points. The majority of the companies expects an economic development dominated by COVID-19 in the coming months.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.

Publications

COVID-19 bremst Konjunkturerholung. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom November 2020 (COVID-19 Slows Down Economic Recovery. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2020)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2020, (11), 13 pages
Supported by: European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 27.11.2020 14:00
Die Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen trübten sich im November im Zuge der zweiten Welle der COVID-19-Pandemie und der damit verbundenen Einschränkungsmaßnahmen ein. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex sank um 5,2 Punkte und lag mit –14,7 Punkten wieder deutlicher im negativen Bereich. Die Unternehmen beurteilten die aktuelle Lage schlechter, die Erwartungen für die nächsten Monate fielen skeptischer aus. Besonders ungünstig wurde die Konjunkturlage im Tourismus, in der Transportwirtschaft und in den Konsumgüterbranchen eingeschätzt.
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Dr. Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial, Innovation and International Economics
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net