Empirica – Journal of European Economics

Sponsored by the Austrian Economic Association and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research

Empirica publishes empirical and theoretical work on all economic aspects of European Integration. The topics may range from all challenges concerning the deepening of the European Union (Single Market, Lisbon Agenda, EMU) to enlargement and the external relations of the EU (globalisation).

Journal homepage

Search for articlesAdvanced search

Details

Oscar Claveria, Enric Monte, Salvador Torra
Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions
Empirica, 2019, 46(2), pp.205-227, http://www.springer.com/10663
In this study we use agents' expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in 26 European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and Baltic and Scandinavian countries). We apply a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation to transform survey variables in economic growth rates. In a first step, we design five independent experiments to derive a formula using survey variables that best replicate the evolution of economic growth in each region by means of genetic programming, limiting the integration schemes to the main mathematical operations. We then rank survey variables according to their performance in tracking economic activity, finding that agents' "perception about the overall economy compared to last year" is the survey variable with the highest predictive power. In a second step, we assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the evolved indicators. Although we obtain different results across regions, Austria, Slovakia, Portugal, Lithuania and Sweden are the economies of each region that show the best forecast results. We also find evidence that the forecasting performance of the survey-based indicators improves during periods of higher growth.
Keywords:Economic indicators, Qualitative survey data, Expectations, Symbolic regression, Evolutionary algorithms, Genetic programming
Research group:Macroeconomics and Public Finance
Language:English

Managing Editor

Univ.-Prof. MMag. Dr. Harald Oberhofer

Function: Senior Economist, Editor-in-Chief Empirica
Research groups: Industrial, Innovation and International Economics