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Macroeconomics and European Economic Policy

WIFO publications (5462 hits)

WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (608), 36 pages
Online since: 11.09.2020 0:00
We propose a novel identification strategy to measure monetary policy in a structural VAR. It is based exclusively on known past policy shocks, which are uncovered from high-frequency data, and does not rely on any theoretical a-priori restrictions. Our empirical analysis for the euro area reveals that interest rate decisions of the ECB surprised financial markets at least fifteen times since 1999. This information is used to restrict the sign and magnitude of the structural residuals of the policy rule equation at these shock dates accordingly. In spite of its utmost agnostic nature, this approach achieves strong identification, suggesting that unexpected ECB decisions have an immediate impact on the short-term money market rate, the narrow money stock, commodity prices, consumer prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate, and that real output responds gradually. Our close to assumption-free approach obtains as an outcome what traditional sign restrictions on impulse responses impose as an assumption.
 
In Austria, economic output fell in the first half of 2020 due to the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. A decline of 2.4 percent compared to the previous period in the first quarter was followed by a contraction of 10.7 percent in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted according to Eurostat standard). Although companies continue to assess the current situation unfavourably in surveys, expectation indicators in particular have improved. Economic risks have recently been pointing more strongly downwards again due to the recent increase in the number of infections.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (606), 38 pages
Revised version (August 2020)
Online since: 28.08.2020 0:00
Labor supply shocks can have substantial effects on the Beveridge Curve. Structural VARs with sign restrictions show that the shocks associated with the free movement of workers from Eastern Europe have temporarily increased unemployment in Austria, a major destination country, by 25 percent and job vacancies by 40 percent. The 2 percent increase in total employment was accompanied by a temporary decline in the employment of domestic workers. The greatest impact is seen in regions bordering on the home countries of the migrant workers. Beyond these findings the paper addresses empirical regularities of labor supply shocks that are at odds with theoretical predictions.
Kennzahlen zur Wirtschaftslage (Economic Indicators)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2020, 93(8), pp.623-635
Online since: 24.08.2020 0:00
 
Erholung der Wirtschaft zeichnet sich ab – hohe Konjunkturrisiken aufgrund steigender COVID-19-Infektionszahlen (Economic Recovery is on the Horizon – High Economic Risks Due to Rising COVID-19 Infections)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2020, 93(8), pp.577-584
Online since: 24.08.2020 0:00
 
In Österreich sank die Wirtschaftsleistung im 1. Halbjahr 2020 wegen der zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie getroffenen Maßnahmen. Einem Rückgang von 2,4% gegenüber der Vorperiode im I. Quartal folgte ein Einbruch um 10,7% im II. Quartal (saisonbereinigt laut Eurostat-Vorgabe). Wenngleich die Unternehmen die aktuelle Lage in Umfragen weiterhin ungünstig einschätzen, haben sich insbesondere die Erwartungsindikatoren verbessert. Die Konjunkturrisiken sind aufgrund des neuerlichen Anstieges der Infektionszahlen zuletzt wieder stärker abwärts gerichtet.
WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 8/2020 (WIFO-Monatsberichte, no 8/2020)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2020, 93(8), 64 pages
Online since: 24.08.2020 0:00
 
Christian Glocker, Erholung der Wirtschaft zeichnet sich ab – hohe Konjunkturrisiken aufgrund steigender COVID-19-Infektionszahlen • Werner Hölzl, Julia Bachtrögler-Unger, Agnes Kügler, Konjunkturbeurteilungen bleiben unter dem Eindruck der COVID-19-Krise – Erwartungen signalisieren beginnende Entspannung. Ergebnisse der Quartalsbefragung des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juli 2020 • Franz Sinabell, Mark Sommer, Gerhard Streicher, Abschätzung der Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen aufgrund des Konjunktureinbruchs • Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger, Matthias Firgo, Gerhard Streicher, Ärztliche Versorgung und der demographische Wandel
WIFO Bulletin, 2020, 25(6), pp.45-58
Online since: 11.08.2020 0:00
 
The measures adopted to contain the COVID-19 pandemic give rise to a recession in Austria. With a slump by 7.0 percent year-on-year, demand and output will contract even more sharply in 2020 than during the economic and financial market crisis of 2008-09. Since the trough now appears to have been passed, the recession promises to be short. Nevertheless, GDP will still not be back to its pre-crisis level by the end of the projection horizon (end of 2021).
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