WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

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Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

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WIFO Bulletin (118 Treffer)

WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(16), S.143-152
Online seit: 20.01.2020 9:00
 
Favourable labour market conditions and robust income growth strengthened demand for non-life insurance in 2018. In contrast, life insurance continued to suffer from low interest rates and the high liquidity preference of private households. With premiums growing by 5 percent, non-life and accident insurance exceeded expectations by far, and private health insurance continued its stable growth path with +4.2 percent. The premium volume in life insurance, on the other hand, prolonged its decline at –3.7 percent. In comparison with the nominal gross domestic product, the premium volume of the entire private insurance sector developed modestly; insurance penetration in Austria fell to 4.5 percent of GDP and it is thus far below the European average of 7.6 percent. Current WIFO surveys show that this trend will continue – at a lesser pace – over the next two years. For the first time, the long phase of low yields on fixed-interest securities caused visible losses in the revenue from capital investments. In total, the financial result was about one tenth lower than in the previous year.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(15), S.136-142
Online seit: 20.01.2020 9:00
 
The global cool-down is likely to bottom out gradually. In the USA and the euro area, economic growth in the third quarter was similarly strong as in the previous quarter. Sentiment did not deteriorate further in these countries recently. Economic momentum in Austria has also remained intact to date, with the business activity continuing to grow by 0.2 percent in the third quarter. In the manufacturing sector, however, value added declined. Companies' assessments of the economy have recently stabilised somewhat, although expectations remain sceptical in the manufacturing sector. The recovery on the labour market has slowed since the beginning of the year. Inflation continues to ease.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(13), S.118-128
Online seit: 10.12.2019 0:00
 
Economic growth in Austria is gradually decelerating to a moderate pace over the forecast period. The lack of dynamism in the global economy dampens exports and manufacturing output. Yet, favourable financing conditions, fiscal stimulus and resilient private consumption provide support to economic activity. GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2019 and 1.4 percent in 2020.
 
The global economy has been gradually weakening since the first half of 2018. It is predicted that growth will remain sluggish in the coming years. The Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1.4 percent per year on average in the forecast period 2020-2024 (2015-2019 +1.9 percent p.a.), slightly (+0.1 percentage point) stronger than the euro area average. The tax reliefs for private household incomes (family bonus and measures to support low-income earners in 2020 and 2021) will continue to support consumer demand. The average growth of private consumption over the forecast period is predicted at 1.5 percent p.a. (2015-2019 +1.2 percent p.a.). The moderate but stable expansion will allow a steady increase in employment of 1.0 percent p.a. (2015-2019 +1.7 percent p.a.) and the unemployment rate will remain at around 7½ percent. In the medium term, price increases according to the consumer price index will be moderate at 1¾ percent p.a., and the inflation differential to the euro area is expected to remain at around ¼ percentage point. Based on the forecast of nominal economic growth at +3.2 percent p.a. and the assumed economic policy measures, the fiscal balance of public households will remain positive over the forecast period at around ½ percent of nominal GDP. As a result, the government debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) is predicted to fall to around 56 percent by 2024.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(11), S.90-98
Online seit: 10.12.2019 0:00
 
In 2017, at 10.6 percent, the average cash-flow-to-sales ratio for the Austrian manufacturing industry was again significantly higher than in the previous year (10.2 percent). According to the WIFO estimate it however stagnated in 2018. In 2019, the cash-flow ratio is expected to decline according to the estimate using a dynamic panel econometric model for the manu-facturing industries.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(14), S.129-135
Online seit: 20.12.2019 0:00
 
The global economy appears to be stabilising somewhat at present. In the USA and the euro area, GDP continues to expand strongly, and indicators in Germany are also pointing to a gradual end to the slowdown. In Austria, the economy grew moderately in the third quarter, but economic momentum remained constant. However, the prospects for the economy are mixed and the recovery on the labour market is already coming to an end. Inflation continued to slow.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(10), S.83-89
Online seit: 15.11.2019 15:00
 
The weakness of the global economy is dampening the Austrian business cycle. Export growth slowed noticeably in the second quarter, and GDP growth eased to +0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter. Private household consumption, however, continued to increase and supported overall growth. The prospects for the Austrian economy stabilised recently. According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), company assessments brightened somewhat in August, especially in the manufacturing sector. The recovery on the labour market is coming to a halt, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stagnated in August. The inflation rate fell slightly to 1.4 percent in July.
 
In the second quarter of 2019, Austrian GDP grew by 0.3 percent compared to the previous period (after +0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and +0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018). Although the expansion of previous years continued, it has slowed continuously since the beginning of 2018. The positive development of the real economy continues to be reflected in the labour market in the form of an increase in employment and a decline in unemployment. Inflation has recently slackened.
 
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(7), S.57-63
Online seit: 29.08.2019 0:00
 
In the USA and the euro area, the economy grew more strongly than most recently in the first quarter of 2019. Some indicators continue to point to a slowdown. However, the economy appears to have stabilised somewhat again. In Austria, on the other hand, growth weakened again somewhat in the first quarter. Manufacturing in particular is suffering from the global economic downturn, while the domestic economy is developing robustly. The recovery on the labour market is gradually flattening out. Inflation remains moderate.
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