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Die vorliegende Studie entwickelt und analysiert neue Energieszenarien für Österreich bis zum Jahr 2050 unter Berücksichtigung der internationalen Klimapolitik nach der UNO-Klimakonferenz in Paris 2015 ("COP21"). Nach UNFCCC-Definition werden ein WEM-Szenario ("with existing measures", mit Maßnahmen bis Mai 2016) und ein WAM-plus-Szenario ("with additional measures", mit zusätzlichen Maßnahmen) modelliert. In den Szenarien werden Auswirkungen von unterschiedlichen klima- und energiepolitischen Maßnahmenbündeln auf Energieverbrauch und Wertschöpfung analysiert. Das WAM-plus-Szenario quantifiziert die Auswirkungen zusätzlicher, ambitionierter ("plus") Maßnahmen zur Steigerung der Energieeffizienz, des Einsatzes erneuerbarer Energieträger und des technologischen Wandels, die den langfristigen Zielen der UNO-Klimakonferenz in Paris zur Verringerung der Treibhausgasemissionen entsprechen. Neben Innovationen und Kostenverbesserungen in den Bereichen Energieeffizienz und erneuerbare Energie werden Verhaltens- und Lebensstiländerungen energierelevanter Nachfragemuster und gezielte Infrastrukturinvestitionen abgebildet. Das WAM-plus-Szenario ist ein weltweites Klimaschutzszenario, das ein weltweites Engagement zur Erreichung der Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens widerspiegelt. Die Szenarien werden durch Koppelung mehrerer technologieorientierter sektoraler Bottom-up-Modelle der Projektpartner (Österreichische Energieagentur, TU Wien, TU Graz, Umweltbundesamt) mit dem Top-down-Modell WIFO.DYNK (dynamisches neu-keynesianisches Modell) modelliert. Das WEM-Szenario ergibt eine leichte absolute Entkoppelung von Wirtschaftsleistung und Energieverbrauch bei einem durchschnittlichen jährlichen realen BIP-Wachstum von 1,5%. Ambitionierter Klimaschutz bewirkt im WAM-plus-Szenario ein durchschnittliches jährliches BIP-Wachstum von 1,7% (zu konstanten Preisen) bei einem deutlichen Rückgang der Energienachfrage in den wichtigsten Sektoren.

This study develops and analyses new energy scenarios for Austria, taking into account the international climate policy after the COP21 in Paris (2015). In two energy-economic scenarios, potential effects of climate and energy policy measures on energy consumption and value added in Austria are modelled up to the year 2050. According to the UNFCCC definition, a WEM scenario ("with existing measures") is developed which describes energy-economic trends and includes the climate and energy-economic measures implemented until the end of May 2016. In addition, a WAM plus scenario ("with additional measures") is developed and modelled, which is based on the medium- and long-term objectives of the European climate and energy policy, i.e., a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 80 to 95 percent by 2050 (compared to 1990) and a representation of the 2030 target (greenhouse gas emissions –40 percent) detailed for Austria. The WAM plus scenario includes a large number of additional measures in the area of energy efficiency, renewable energy and technological change. Next to technological innovations and cost improvements in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, this includes behavioural and lifestyle changes in energy-related demand patterns and targeted infrastructure investments. The WAM plus scenario is a global climate change scenario that reflects a global commitment to achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The modelling of the scenarios takes the form of a model coupling of a number of technology-oriented sectoral bottom-up models of the project partners (AEA, TU Vienna, TU Graz, UBA) with a top-down model – the WIFO.DYNK model (Dynamic New-Keynesian model). As a result, there is a slight absolute decoupling of economic performance and energy consumption in the WEM scenario, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5 percent. Considerable investments in a low-carbon economy set significant growth impulses for the Austrian economy in the WAM plus scenario. Cost-saving effects through lower energy bills are responsible for income effects that generate a positive stimulous to the economy. Ultimately, this increases the average annual GDP growth rate to 1.7 percent (at constant prices), with a significant fall in energy demand in the main aggregated sectors. Detailed sector results can be found in the report.

The CATs project focused on carbon taxes as a policy instrument for achieving emission reductions particularly in sectors not covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Based on a systematic review of carbon taxes in EU member countries and a qualitative assessment of the implementation barriers and success factors in frontrunner countries a model-based analysis of the effects of various carbon tax scenarios for Austria was performed. Policy recommendations were developed for Austria and the EU. The project results suggest that carefully designed CO2 tax schemes can play an important part in achieving greenhouse gas emission targets for non-ETS sectors in Austria with potentially positive distributive and macroeconomic impacts.

The CATs project focused on carbon taxes as a policy instrument for achieving emission reductions particularly in sectors not covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Based on a systematic review of carbon taxes in EU member countries and a qualitative assessment of the implementation barriers and success factors in frontrunner countries a model-based analysis of the effects of various carbon tax scenarios for Austria was performed. Policy recommendations were developed for Austria and the EU. The project results suggest that carefully designed CO2 tax schemes can play an important part in achieving greenhouse gas emission targets for non-ETS sectors in Austria with potentially positive distributive and macroeconomic impacts.

We assess distributive, macroeconomic, and CO2 emission impacts of CO2 tax schemes in Austria by applying the macroeconomic input-output model DYNK[AUT]. The tax schemes analysed focus primarily on CO2 emissions not covered by the European Emission Trading System (ETS), applying different CO2 tax rates as well as tax compensation schemes. We perform comparative scenario analysis for our model's base year (i.e., short-term impacts). Our model simulations indicate that – without tax compensation – impacts on households can be regressive if measured as tax burden relative to income, and are found to be rather proportional if measured as tax burden relative to expenditure or as changes in total expenditure and income. Lower income households benefit more from tax compensations (lump sum payments), i.e., CO2 taxes with compensation measures for households lead to progressive tax burden impacts. Energy-related CO2 emissions decrease quite substantially in non-ETS sectors, although households react inelastic. Value added in most non-ETS industry and service sectors declines only slightly without tax compensation and commodity import shares are hardly affected. Decreasing employers' social contribution (i.e., lowering labour costs) mitigates negative impacts in most non-ETS industry and service sectors. GDP decreases very moderately without tax recycling, depending on the tax rate. Employment effects are similar but smaller. Tax recycling leads to negligible GDP impacts and increases employment. Our simulations thus suggest that CO2 taxes could be a crucial and socially acceptable element within a comprehensive set of policy instruments in order to contribute to achieving greenhouse-gas emission targets for non-ETS sectors in Austria.

Die vorliegende Studie übersetzt zwei Energieeffizienzszenarien in die Modellsprache des Modells WIFO.DYNK und analysiert die mittel- und langfristigen Auswirkungen (2030/2050) von Energiepreisentwicklung, Potentialen zur Steigerung der technologischen Effizienz sowie Struktur- und Verhaltensänderungen auf die Wirtschaftsleistung, den Endenergieverbrauch und die CO2-Emissionen in Österreich. Modelliert werden ein Effizienzszenario für den produzierenden Bereich und, darauf aufsetzend, ein Effizienzszenario für den Haushaltssektor und Verkehr. In das Baseline-Szenario fließen bereits beschlossene Entwicklungen zum Ausbau der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energieträger und der Elektromobilität bis 2050 ein. In einem Umfeld der weltweiten Dekarbonisierung (450-Szenario der Internationalen Energieagentur) könnten demnach durch eine Realisierung der angenommenen Effizienzsteigerungspotentiale die CO2-Emissionen gegenüber dem Baseline-Szenario um bis zu 5 Mio. t im Jahr 2030 und bis zu 8 Mio. t im Jahr 2050 gesenkt werden; zugleich könnte die Wirtschaftsleistung geringfügig gesteigert werden. Für Maßnahmen zur Vermeidung der verbleibenden Emissionen könnte insbesondere der dieselbasierte Güterverkehr ein Ansatzpunkt sein, um eine mit dem Übereinkommen von Paris konforme Emissionsentwicklung zu erzielen.

The recent macroeconomic literature dealing with fiscal policy multipliers is dominated by applications of aggregate DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models, whereas multi-sectoral models (econometric input-output or CGE) are absent. This paper contributes to the debate from a multi-regional, multi-sectoral perspective. The macroeconomic input-output model applied covers 67 countries (plus a statistical rest of world) and incorporates model blocks for private consumption, production, the labour market and the public sector. Household consumption follows the permanent income hypothesis, but with important liquidity constraints. This study calculates macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of fiscal policy in one peripheral EU economy (Spain) as well as their inter-regional spillovers to the rest of Europe. Multipliers are about 1.9 for public consumption and 1.2 for household taxes or transfers in the case of high liquidity constraints (1.6 and 0.9, respectively, for low liquidity constraints). Partially endogenous public spending produces additional domestic effects as well as relatively large spillovers for some highly indebted European countries.

This report serves as an update of "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output model for the EU 27" by Kratena et al. (2013), i.e., the manual of the first version of the FIDELIO model. FIDELIO fits into the generation of macroeconomic multi-sectoral input-output models whose earliest contributions include the Cambridge MDM (Barker, 1976) and the INFORUM (Almon et al., 1974) models for the UK and the USA, respectively. Such econometric input-output models have grown over time in terms of complexity and scope and are used for macroeconomic modelling purposes alongside other types of general equilibrium models (including DSGE ones). This report explores the theoretical foundations of the latest version of the model, FIDELIO 2 (which has been developed between 2014 and 2016), and contains a description of its main features. With respect to its initial version, the model has been extended in a number of ways. For instance, and without entering into detail at this stage, seven non-EU countries are now included in the model (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the USA) in addition to the 27 EU countries already included in the first version; both trade and household final demand are now modelled in a considerably more complex way than before; there is an environmental block dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, and the base year is 2007 rather than 2005. Thus, it was deemed necessary to present all the new model characteristics in an organic way via the present technical report. The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a concise macro-overview of FIDELIO 2 which relies very much on the first section of the FIDELIO 1 manual by Kratena et al. (2013). Section 2 presents the economic theories underlying the core blocks of FIDELIO 2. This report serves two main purposes. First, it is an adequate resource for the readers who are interested in the model's main features. Second, it facilitates the process of understanding all the details of FIDELIO 2 for those who want to learn the logic and the theory behind its construction. Such readers are expected to grasp the general structure of the model by reading Section 1, helped by the overview of the model's main economic flows contained in Figure 1. Then, Section 2 goes through the theoretical foundations of the various model blocks.

Anhand der Stoffgruppen Eisen und Stahl, Aluminium, Papier und Glas werden die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wirkungen (Beschäftigung und Wertschöpfung) der Rückgewinnung von Sekundärrohstoffen für die Substitution von Primärrohstoffen in der Produktion und im Export geschätzt. Berechnet werden die weltweiten Einsparungen an Treibhausgasemissionen durch die Vermeidung von Primärproduktion. Die Analyse erfolgt mit dem WIFO.DYNK-Modell, das für diese Zwecke adaptiert wurde: Datensätze zu Primär- und Sekundärproduktionsprozessen wurden integriert, insbesondere zum Ressourcen- und Energieeinsatz in der Produktion, der auf Basis von physischen Materialflüssen und Preisen berechnet wurde.

Anhand der Stoffgruppen Eisen und Stahl, Aluminium, Papier und Glas werden die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wirkungen (Beschäftigung und Wertschöpfung) der Rückgewinnung von Sekundärrohstoffen für die Substitution von Primärrohstoffen in der Produktion und im Export geschätzt. Berechnet werden die weltweiten Einsparungen an Treibhausgasemissionen durch die Vermeidung von Primärproduktion. Die Analyse erfolgt mit dem WIFO.DYNK-Modell, das für diese Zwecke adaptiert wurde: Datensätze zu Primär- und Sekundärproduktionsprozessen wurden integriert, insbesondere zum Ressourcen- und Energieeinsatz in der Produktion, der auf Basis von physischen Materialflüssen und Preisen berechnet wurde.