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In this paper, we revisit the evidence on the effects of time spent on border‐crossing procedures for international trade using a theory‐consistent structural gravity model. We exploit a rich panel dataset including domestic trade flows and employ a recent econometric estimator that exhibits favourable asymptotic properties for inference. The results indicate a significant negative effect of the time required for border procedures that is driven by the time needed for document preparation. We find that an additional day spent on those procedures corresponds to an ad valorem tariff equivalent of 0.4 percentage points. The parameters of our structural model are used to simulate three counterfactual scenarios, quantifying the effect of past and potential future trade facilitation efforts for middle‐, low‐, and high‐income countries. Full endowment general equilibrium effects suggest that in times of stagnating multilateral and bilateral trade liberalization efforts, unilateral implementation of trade facilitation carries the potential to induce an alternative stimulus for trade and welfare, especially for low‐ and middle‐income countries.

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3 percent and 5.7 percent. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.

Confidence intervals using robust PPML-standard errors are too small in cross-section gravity models. Monte Carlo simulations indicate approximately correct coverage rates of jackknife and percentile bootstrap confidence intervals. Those of constrained PPML estimates are reliable, if trade costs are non-stochastic.

This paper reconsiders the estimation of structural gravity models. It introduces a constrained, projection-based Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation procedure (constrained PPML) that exploits the equilibrium conditions introduced by Anderson and Van Wincoop (2003) for estimation and inference. The constrained PPML estimator avoids the estimation of the large number of exporter and importer fixed effects, and provides more reliable inference than the unconstrained PPML estimator. Moreover, based on the delta method the paper drives confidence intervals of counterfactual changes. Monte Carlo simulations yield encouraging results on the performance of the constrained PPML estimator.

Using a panel data set of Austrian service exporting firms this paper examines the determinants of service exports at the firm- and destination country level. We implement a random effects Heckman sample selection firm‐level gravity model as well as a fixed effects Poisson model. Expected firm‐level service exports are decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins of adjustment as a response to counterfactual changes. We find market demand to be a key determinant. Results also suggest high service export potentials due to regulatory reform in partner countries within the EU. Adjustments at the extensive margin only play a marginal role. Increases in firm size as well as changes in distance related costs are most effective in developing new export relationships in services.

Using a panel data set of Austrian service exporting firms this paper examines the determinants of service exports at the firm- and destination country level. We implement a random effects Heckman sample selection firm‐level gravity model as well as a fixed effects Poisson model. Expected firm‐level service exports are decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins of adjustment as a response to counterfactual changes. We find market demand to be a key determinant. Results also suggest high service export potentials due to regulatory reform in partner countries within the EU. Adjustments at the extensive margin only play a marginal role. Increases in firm size as well as changes in distance related costs are most effective in developing new export relationships in services.