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The impact of the scope of technological search on path dependence in export specialisation. Evidence for European countries
This paper examines how product relatedness and the breadth of technological search affect the path-dependent development of export specialisations across countries documented in prior research. The results of the econometric analysis in this paper show that broader technological search in an industry has a positive impact on the development of comparative advantages in the product lines it exports. The interplay between product relatedness and the scope of technological search has a two-edged character. On the one hand, broader technological search supports adjustments and consolidations of the export baskets on the extensive margin. This contributes to weaken path-dependency. On the other hand, it fosters the competitiveness of products that are related to current export specialisations, and thereby promotes path-dependency on the intensive margin of trade. These results differ across countries with different levels of technological capabilities.
JEL-Codes:I25, O11, O14
Keywords:trade diversification, path dependency, knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion, product space
Forschungsbereich:Industrieökonomie, Innovation und internationaler Wettbewerb

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Aktuelle Forschungsprojekte (in Arbeit)
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung – Statistik Austria – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – University College London – Katholische Universität Leuven – Universität Tartu – Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek – Maastricht Economic and Social Research and Training Centre on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Universität Bielefeld – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – Universität Ljubljana
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Well before the recession of 2008-09, the successful socioeconomic regime of growth of the three decades after Word War II came to an end as the smooth matching among technological innovation, productivity growth, income distribution and aggregate demand increasingly broke down. However, a new virtuous regime is hardly emerging and growth of income and productivity remains sluggish especially in Europe. The project is meant to investigate the causes of the slowdown and to propose an integrated policy package able to sustain an inclusive and welfare-enhancing process of growth resilient to climate change and population aging. The project addresses the whole thread of the interaction among innovation, productivity, and growth in a world possibly undergoing a "IV Industrial Revolution", wherein globalisation exacerbated the diverging patterns of value distribution among countries and social groups. Together, it will thoroughly study the effects of monetary, fiscal and mission-oriented policies in stimulating productivity and output growth. The team comprises leading international scholars ranging from economics of innovation, industrial dynamics, econometrics, agent-based macroeconomics, and public governance. Crucially a group of National Statistical Offices will join the research, also developing new data and measurements. The policy recommendations will be grounded on solid micro, meso and macro analyses, always accounting for the feedbacks between Schumpeterian (supply side) and Keynesian (demand side) dynamics. The relevance and adequacy of the proposed policies will be continuously challenged by the interaction with a whole set of stakeholders belonging to European institutions, civil society, and business.