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A Global Financial Transaction Tax. Theory, Practice and Potential Revenues
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (582), 59 Seiten
Online seit: 29.05.2019 0:00
This study presents in detail the concept of a financial transaction tax (FTT) and the theoretical and empirical evidence in favour and against introducing it, the potential revenues, different implementation designs and its ability to correct various market failures. We analyse the benefits and challenges of introducing a tax on financial transactions, putting special focus on the introduction of such a tax on a world-wide scale. For a number of reasons, international cooperation is deemed a central prerequisite for an efficient FTT. The purpose of the tax is to raise substantial revenues and help dampen excessive financial market speculation and market volatility. An FTT would ensure that the financial sector contributes more substantially to government revenues. In its optimal form, the tax would be broad-based and there will be no financial instrument types exempted. In a second step, we analyse from a political economy perspective the prospects, the current status, and the lessons learnt from the European discussion on the implementation of an FTT. Finally, we calculate the revenue potential of a global FTT and report how much revenues would accrue to specific countries. We estimate that the tax, if imposed globally and taking into account still evasion, relocation and lock-in effects, can bring significant revenues – between 237.9 and 418.8 billion $ annually. The baseline case delivers 326.9 billion $ overall for the global economy, which corresponds to 0.43 percent of global GDP. These are lower bounds for potential revenues due to missing data on a number of financial instrument types. For specific countries, in the baseline case this would result in 72.57 billion $ annual potential revenues for the USA (0.37 percent of GDP), 119.46 billion $ for the European Union (0.69 percent of GDP), 10.00 billion $ for Germany (0.27 percent of GDP), 9.99 billion $ for France (0.39 percent of GDP) and 19.99 billion $ for Japan (0.41 percent of GDP).
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik
Sprache:Englisch

Verwandte Einträge

Workshops, Konferenzen und andere Veranstaltungen, Vienna, 19.9.2016
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Veranstalter: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Mendelova univerzita v Brně – King's College London
Online seit: 25.01.2016 0:00
The objective of the FairTax Conference on "Options for an EU Tax as an EU own Resource" is to promote the exchange of ideas among researchers working on reform options for the EU system of own resources in general, and for own EU taxes to substitute national contributions by EU member countries in particular: Hereby considering both conventional tax policy criteria, also based on the main propositions of the fiscal federalism literature on the optimal assignment of taxes with a multi-level governance structure, as well as evaluation criteria that capture the four dimensions of sustainability relevant to revenue and tax systems (economic, social, environmental, and cultural sustainability). Contributions will analyse all the aspects connected with possible candidates for an EU tax as an EU own resource to finance the EU budget: potential effects on sustainable development, gender impacts, institutional implications, regional distribution of the tax burden, and budgetary implications.
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte, http://www.org.umu.se/fairtax/english/
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Copenhagen Business School – Fundação Getulio Vargas – King's College London – Linköpings universitet – Mendelova univerzita v Brně – National University of Ireland, Galway – Queen's University of Kingston – Handelshøyskolen BI – University of Exeter – Umeå universitet
Abgeschlossen: 2019
Plans for economic and monetary integration in the European Union call for fundamental changes in fiscal relations among EU members and other countries. The 2012 Blueprint for the European Monetary Union (EMU) calls for deeper integration of fiscal policies at the level of domestic EU members, including establishing EU own-source revenues. The 2013 Social Dimension of the EMU emphasises that this fiscal revisioning must also improve coordination of employment and social policies post-crisis to counteract declines in state revenues, evaluate fragmented policy initiatives during the crisis, and improve human well-being and capabilities ends in themselves and as preconditions to stable integration and sustainable growth. This project will carry out in-depth comparative, interdisciplinary research using constitutional, legal, technical, institutional, qualitative, and quantitative methods to address four core issues: options for expanding EU legislative competences or governance mechanisms for effective harmonisation of member tax and social policies; reform options for state-level coordination of fairer, more stable, and more sustainable tax and social policy regimes; strategies for the increased effectiveness and harmonisation of tax administration and compliance structures within the EU and non-EU areas; and recommendations for true own-source EU revenues. This project is relevant to fundamental political and structural challenges that face the EU as it pursues deep fiscal integration. Fiscal policies encompass both revenue production and state spending priorities, and have tremendous impact on life choices, business planning, and economic development. Whether under conditions of stable growth or disruption, state revenues remain at the heart of state governance capacities; throughout, the well-being of the population as a whole remains at the heart of social and political stability and productivity.
Studie von: Umeå universitet – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Linköpings universitet – Stiftelsen Handelshøyskolen – Copenhagen Business School – King's College London – University of Exeter – National University of Ireland, Galway – Mendelova univerzita v Brně – Queen's University of Kingston – Fundação Getulio Vargas
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Taxing the aviation sector at the EU level and using the resulting revenues to reduce member countries' contributions to finance the EU budget presents itself as a huge opportunity not only to decrease carbon emissions effectively, but also to reform the EU system of own resources. The aviation sector is a small but fast growing emitter of carbon dioxide. The failed attempts of several EU countries to introduce a flight ticket tax and the pressure on those EU countries still levying such a tax clearly demonstrate the limits of national aviation taxation. Assigning any kind of taxes on flight tickets to the EU level would greatly reduce the tax enforcement problems inherent to mobile tax bases and put a stop to harmful tax competition between EU countries. A double dividend, consisting of a reduction of CO2 emissions on the one side and a boost for the economy on the other side, is a likely scenario if additional tax revenues are spent in the right way. Therefore, in this paper it is proposed that all revenues from a European carbon-based ticket tax should be used to reduce contributions of member countries to the EU budget. This would allow national governments to reduce taxes more harmful for growth and employment, in particular the high tax burden on labour. Given the current political and legal situation a European carbon-based ticket tax has better chances of implementation compared to a tax on aviation fuel and is therefore a financial instrument which could foster sustainable growth in the very near future. The paper estimates the expected revenue from implementing a carbon-based flight ticket tax at the EU level and revenue distribution across EU countries. In particular, we propose that every passenger departing from an airport within the EU and every passenger arriving from outside the EU at an EU-based airport is subjected to this new carbon tax which is calculated individually for every route flown. The paper uses a new and very exact data set, which (depending on the country) assigns to approximately 75 to 90 percent of the respective intra and extra EU routes flown in the year 2014 the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions per passenger (using the ICAO methodology). Based on the demand elasticities provided by IATA (2007), we are thus able to exactly calculate the tax revenues per passenger per route that could have been generated in 2014 by introducing a carbon-based flight ticket tax in the EU.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Umeå universitet – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Linköpings universitet – Stiftelsen Handelshøyskolen – Copenhagen Business School – King's College London – University of Exeter – National University of Ireland, Galway – Mendelova univerzita v Brně – Queen's University of Kingston – Fundação Getulio Vargas
EU taxes play a key role in political and economic discussions about the future of the EU's own resource system, and their desirability can vary accordingly. It is therefore essential to clearly articulate the goals which are to be achieved by the introduction of this new financing tool. This paper provides a critical overview of advantages and disadvantages of EU taxes. Reviewing the conventional fiscal federalism and political economy literature on this topic it can be concluded that there is no obvious (overall) case for funding the EU budget with EU taxes rather than with contributions by member countries which currently make up for the lion's share of EU own resources. There are, however, some specific issues arising from a sustainability perspective, which could be addressed with the introduction of EU taxes. Departing from a comprehensive concept of sustainability, which is based on the economic, the social, the environmental and the cultural and institutional pillar of sustainability, the paper reviews sustainability gaps in taxation in the EU. EU taxes if designed accordingly may be suitable instruments to reduce these sustainability gaps. The paper also develops criteria based on the four dimensions of sustainability that may be used in a next step to evaluate potential candidates for EU taxes.
Workshops, Konferenzen und andere Veranstaltungen, Permanent Representation of the Czech Republic to the EU, Rue Caroly 15, 1050 Brussels, 21.11.2017
Veranstalter: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Mendelova univerzita v Brně – Umeå universitet – Universiteit Utrecht
Online seit: 27.07.2017 0:00
The EU confronts increasing and persistent inequalities in income, wealth and opportunity and between generations, gender and regions. One common underlying factor is deficiencies in fiscal systems. FairTax tries to find answers how fair and sustainable taxation and social policy reforms can increase the economic stability of EU member countries. COFFERS identifies deficiencies and opportunities for upgrading in tax law, tax policy development, tax administration and enforcement.
Workshops, Konferenzen und andere Veranstaltungen, Brno, 9.-10.3.2017, http://www.org.umu.se/fairtax/english/calendar/calendarview/?eventId=14249
Details: Margit Schratzenstaller
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Europäische Kommission
Veranstalter: Mendelova univerzita v Brně – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 07.11.2016 0:00
The objective of the FairTax special session on "Fair and Sustainable Taxation" is to promote the exchange of ideas among researchers working on the concept of fair taxation in the European Union as well as on the topic of sustainability with respect to taxation regimes and tax policy. We are looking forward to receiving contributions analysing all the aspects connected with the issue of fair and sustainable taxation, e.g., tax fraud and tax compliance, corrective taxes (e.g. environmental taxes), taxing for growth, cultural and institutional sustainability of taxation, taxes as redistributive tool, gender impact of taxation.
Margit Schratzenstaller (Projektleitung)
Schätzung der Einnahmen aus einer Finanztransaktionssteuer für Österreich. Aktualisierung (Estimate of the Revenue From a Financial Transaction Tax for Austria. Update)
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Finanzen
Abgeschlossen: 2018
Die Studie schätzt die potentiellen Einnahmen aus der Einführung einer Finanztransaktionssteuer (FTT) im Rahmen der verstärkten Kooperation in der EU, wie sie derzeit von 10 EU-Mitgliedsländern (FTT10) diskutiert wird. In der EU wird die Implementierung einer Finanztransaktionssteuer seit mehreren Jahren behandelt, wobei das Konzept entlang verschiedener wichtiger Dimensionen modifiziert wurde. Auf der Basis des methodischen Ansatzes der Europäischen Kommission erstellt diese Studie mit den aktuellsten Daten zum Umsatzvolumen der wichtigsten Finanzinstrumente neue länderspezifische Schätzungen zum Einnahmenpotential einer Finanztransaktionssteuer für die 10 beteiligten EU-Mitgliedsländer. Dabei werden sowohl die potentiellen Einnahmen für jedes einzelne Land als auch für die Ländergruppe insgesamt berechnet. In Abhängigkeit von den wichtigsten Parametern (Elastizitäten, Ausweicheffekte und Transaktionskosten) werden drei Szenarien zum Einnahmenpotential einer Finanztransaktionssteuer formuliert. Die derzeit erwogenen Ausnahmen für bestimmte Finanzprodukte und Finanzmarktsegmente werden diskutiert und die dadurch verursachten Einnahmenausfälle geschätzt.
Veronika Solilová, Danuše Nerudová, Marian Dobranschi
in: Alexander Hudetz, Ann Mumford, Danuše Nerudová, Margit Schratzenstaller, Reform Needs and Options in the EU System of Own Resources. Selected Papers of the Fair Tax Conference at the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Vienna, 19 September 2016
Empirica, 2017, 44(4), S.687-731, http://www.springer.com/10663
Although responsibility for realising the Europe 2020 strategy is shared between the EU and its 28 member countries, the main criticism of the current EU budget relates to the lack of a link between the budget and the Europe 2020 strategy. Therefore the paper focuses on a new budget design as well as alternative revenue sources. One of the possible candidates is a financial transaction tax (FTT). To study the FTT revenue potential, a model based on a remittance system was designed. We analyse full or partial replacement of VAT- and GNI-based own resources by the transfer of tax revenues from a FTT raised on the national level to the EU budget. The research reveals that FTT-based own resource would be able to fully replace GNI-based own resources only for some EU member countries; however, VAT-based own resources can be fully replaced by a FTT-based own resources for the entire EU. Further, results also show that from the EU 11 as well as from the EU 28 perspective, the tax is sufficient to fully replace VAT- or GNI-contributions if levied on the EU 11 or EU 28 level, respectively (not on the national level) as a direct payment to the EU budget without tracking the source member country.
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Auftraggeber: Stamp Out Poverty
Abgeschlossen: 2015
In September 2011 the European Commission published a proposal for the implementation of a general financial transactions tax (FTT). However, no EU-wide consensus on the implementation of a FTT could be reached. In particular, the government of that EU country with the by far highest trading volumes, the UK, rejected the FTT. As a consequence, the governments of 11 member countries decided in October 2012 to introduce the FTT in their respective jurisdictions utilising the "enhanced cooperation procedure". These countries are Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain (in the following abbreviated as FTTCs). The proposed study shall estimate how much revenue the UK will lose by not joining into the new European FTT. These FTT revenues foregone to the UK will be substantial since the proposal of the EC is based on the residence principle for taxing financial transactions. According to this principle, taxation will take place in that EU member country where the financial institution which is party to the transaction is established, independent of the location of the transaction. As a consequence, trades between British financial institutions and financial institutions established in one of the 11 FTTCs will still be taxed when the 11 national FTT goes ahead, but money that could be flowing to the UK Finance Ministry will instead go to European governments. This is true for transactions not only carried out in the City of London but also on any other market in the world economy. In addition, the study will estimate the overall (hypothetical) earnings of the UK if she introduced the tax according to the EC proposal.
WIFO Working Papers, 2014, (474), 34 Seiten
Paper presented at the 11th Euroframe Conference on Economic Policy Issues, Paris, 6 June 2014
Online seit: 25.06.2014 0:00
The struggle over the FTT has developed in three phases. In the first phase (2009 to 2011) the supporters of the tax went on the offensive, supported by the "shock effects" of the financial crisis. This phase ended with the (preliminary) "victory" in the form of the FTT proposal of the European Commission in September 2011. The second phase was shaped by the search for ways how to implement the FTT within the EU. It ended with the publication of a modified FTT proposal by the Commission in February 2013 as basis for the implementation in 11 member countries. The last phase has been marked by a strong counter-offensive of the financial lobby which succeeded in playing off FTT supporting countries against each other, in particular Germany and France. This phase ended with a defeat of the FTT supporters. Not even in a group of EU countries will a general FTT be implemented in the foreseeable future. The struggle over the FTT was mainly carried out in two "battlefields", the intellectual disputes between economists at universities, research institutes and international organisations, and the political controversies between NGOs, political parties, governments and pressure groups, in particular the finance industry.
WIFO Working Papers, 2014, (461), 30 Seiten
Online seit: 07.02.2014 0:00
The paper summarises at first the main arguments in favour and against a FTT and provides empirical evidence about the movements of the most important asset prices. It is shown that their long swings result from the accumulation of extremely short-term price runs over time. Therefore a (very) small FTT – between 0.1 and 0.01 percent – would mitigate price volatility not only over the short run but also over the long run. The subsequent section discusses the most important implementation issues if only a group of 11 EU member countries introduces this tax (without the UK). If London subsidiaries of banks established in one of the FTT countries are treated as part of their parent company, overall FTT revenues of the 11 FTT countries are estimated at € 65.8 billion, if London subsidiaries are treated as British financial institutions, tax revenues would amount to only € 28.3 billion.
Monographien, Juli 2013, 76 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 04.07.2013 0:00
 
The study investigates the effects of the implementation of the financial transaction tax (FTT) as conceptualised by the European Commission (EC) in a group of 11 EU countries. It is shown that the objections against this concept – recently put forward by Goldman Sachs and other banks heavily engaged in short-term trading – suffer from serious methodological flaws. Particular attention ist given to the potential use of London subsidiaries of financial institutions established in participating countries as vehicle for tax evasion. If London subsidiaries are treated as part of their parent company, overall FTT revenues of the 11 FTT countries are estimated at 65.8 billion €, more than estimated by the EC for the EU 27 as a whole. Roughly one quarter of these revenues would stem from transactions in North America and Asia. If London subsidiaries are treated as British financial institutions, tax revenues would amount to only 28.3 billion €. This difference is particularly great for those countries which operate to a significant extent through big subsidiaries in London like Germany and France.
Helene Schuberth (OeNB), Stephan Schulmeister (WIFO)
Monographien, September 2011, 41 Seiten
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Auftraggeber: Oesterreichische Nationalbank
 
Recent technological advances in payment and settlement systems as well as initiatives taken in the wake of the financial crisis to regulate derivatives markets facilitate the implementation of financial transactions taxes (FTTs). Institutions operating settlement and payment systems as well as exchanges could be required to collect and remit the respective revenues to fiscal authorities. This approach involves much lower costs compared to the administrative burden associated with collecting the tax from market participants. It further reduces opportunities for tax avoidance and evasion. The study assesses the technical feasibility of such a central approach of FTT administration. The analysis is conducted for transactions on organised exchanges and over-the-counter transactions. Regarding the latter, special attention is devoted to foreign exchange transactions that are mostly traded over the counter. Implementing an FTT on exchange-traded instruments seems to be straightforward and is now common practice in some EU countries. The Continuous Linked Settlement Bank and the establishment of Central Counterparty Platforms for derivatives traded over the counter facilitate a centralised collection of taxes also on transactions outside organised exchanges.
Monographien, Juni 2011, 64 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Bundesarbeitskammer
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 22.06.2011 11:00
 
The study summarises the most significant observations about trading behaviour and price dynamics in financial markets. Against this background, the main objections to a general financial transactions tax (FTT) as put forward by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission are evaluated. The main part of the study deals with the two different ways of how an FTT could be implemented. With the centralised approach, the tax is collected at point of settlement, either from the electronic settlement systems at exchanges, or from Central Counterparty Platforms (CCPs) in the case of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, respectively. With the decentralised approach, the tax is deducted by the banks which transmit an order to an exchange or which carry out an OTC transaction. The centralised tax deduction would be optimal but requires a broad consensus among countries within the same trading time zone. By contrast, the decentralised approach could be implemented by a group of (EU or euro) countries without doing much harm to their own markets.
Over the past three decades, trading in asset markets has become progressively more short-term oriented ("faster"), with traders attempting to exploit intraday price trends. Yet, over this time, asset prices have continued to move in a sequence of alternating "bull markets" and "bear markets", often lasting several years. Which type of trading behaviour over the (very) short run leads to the irregular bull and bear phases over the longer run? The paper finds that "bull (bear) markets" are brought about because upward (downward) price runs last longer than counter-movements for an extended period of time. This pattern results from "trading as usual", which employs "technical analysis" to exploit asset price trends and, in doing so, reinforces the price trends. The recent financial crisis spilled over to the real economy mainly through the simultaneous devaluation of stock, housing and commodity wealth. The severity of these "bear markets" was the result of the long upward climb of prices during the preceding "bull markets." The paper argues that a financial transactions tax would reduce the profitability of short-term trend-chasing in derivatives markets (fundamentals-oriented trading would hardly be affected). By doing so, a transactions tax would limit the magnitude of the "long swings" in asset prices.
Stephan Schulmeister
Eine generelle Finanztransaktionssteuer. Konzept, Begründung, Auswirkungen (A General Financial Transaction Tax: The Concept, its Justification and Effects)
WIFO Working Papers, 2009, (352), 21 Seiten
Das Paper skizziert zunächst das Konzept einer Steuer auf sämtliche Transaktionen mit Finanztiteln ("financial assets") und fasst die wichtigsten Argumente für und gegen eine solche Steuer zusammen. Im Anschluss wird die für die Bewertung dieser Argumente relevante empirische Evidenz dokumentiert. Dies betrifft insbesondere die Entwicklung der Finanztransaktionen sowie die Dynamik von Wechselkursen, Rohstoffpreisen und Aktienkursen. Die Daten lassen vermuten, dass die Einführung einer Finanztransaktionssteuer die Instabilität dieser Preise mildern würde, und zwar sowohl ihre kurzfristige Volatilität als auch das Ausmaß der längerfristigen Trends nach oben und unten ("bull markets" bzw. "bear markets"). Abschließend wird das Ertragspotential einer Transaktionssteuer für drei Steuersätze geschätzt (0,1%, 0,05% und 0,01%). Die Einnahmen wären wegen des hohen Handelsvolumens auf dem Finanzmarkt erheblich: Bei einem Steuersatz von 0,05% lägen sie in Deutschland zwischen 0,7% und 1,5% des BIP, in Europa zwischen 0,9% und 2,1%.
WIFO Working Papers, 2009, (344), 20 Seiten
The idea of introducing a general financial transaction tax (FTT) has recently attracted rising attention. There are three reasons for this interest: First, the economic crisis was deepened by the instability of stock prices, exchange rates and commodity prices. This instability might be dampened by such a tax. Second, as a consequence of the crisis, the need for fiscal consolidation has tremendously increased. A FTT would provide governments with substantial revenues. Third, the dampening effects of a FTT on the real economy would be much smaller as compared to other tax measures like increasing the VAT. The paper summarises at first the six main arguments in favour and against a FTT. It then provides empirical evidence about the movements of the most important asset prices. These observations suggest that a small FTT (between 0.1 and 0.01 percent) would mitigate price volatility not only over the short run but also over the long run. At the same time, a FTT would yield substantial revenues. For Europe, revenues would amount to 1.6 percent of GDP at a tax rate of 0.05 percent (transaction volume is assumed to decline by roughly 65 percent at this rate). In the UK, tax receipts would be highest. Even if only transactions on exchanges are taxed in a first step (at a rate of 0.05 percent), a FTT would yield 3.6 percent of GDP in the UK. In Germany, FTT receipts would amount to 0.9 percent of GDP in this case. If a FTT is introduced in the UK and in Germany at the same time, neither country needs to fear a significant "emigration" of trading. This can be presumed because roughly 97 percent of all transactions on exchanges in the EU are carried out in these two countries.
WIFO Working Papers, 2009, (340), 32 Seiten
The deepening of the recent crisis was driven by the simultaneous devaluation of stock wealth, housing wealth and commodity wealth. The potential for this devaluation process had been "built up" during the boom of stock prices, house prices and commodity prices between 2003 and 2007. Hence, this paper sketches the main causes and effects of long swings in asset prices in the context of the current crisis. It is shown that "bull markets" are brought about by upward price runs (i.e., monotonic movements) lasting longer than counter-movements for an extended period of time (and vice versa for "bear markets"). This pattern of asset price dynamics is the result of "trading as usual" on (highly regulated) derivatives exchanges. The most popular trading practices like "technical analysis" contribute significantly to asset price overshooting. These practices strengthened both, the boom of asset prices until mid 2007 as well as their collapse in recent months. A general financial transaction tax would limit the wide fluctuations of stock prices, exchange rates and commodity prices.
Monographien, Jänner 2009, 108 Seiten
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Finanzen – Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit
 
Movements of commodity prices like the prices of crude oil, corn, wheat and rice are to a substantial extent lengthened and strengthened by speculation in the respective futures markets. In particular the widespread use of technical trading systems reinforces the trending behaviour of commodity prices. The impact of these trading practices on price overshooting was particularly pronounced during the recent commodity price boom. These conclusions can be derived from the performance of 1,092 trading systems in the futures markets for crude oil, corn, wheat and rice between 1989 and mid-2008 as well as from the impact of the aggregate trading behaviour of these models on the simultaneous and subsequent price movements. It is highly plausible that a financial transaction tax would dampen the volatility of commodity prices.
Stephan Schulmeister
Handelsdynamik und Preisschwankungen auf Finanzmärkten und das Stabilisierungspotential einer Finanztransaktionssteuer (Trade Dynamics and Price Fluctuations in Financial Markets and the Stabilisation Potential of a Financial Transaction Tax)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2008, 81(8), S.607-626
 
Die empirische Evidenz zur Entwicklung von Transaktionen und Preisdynamik auf den wichtigsten Finanzmärkten lässt vermuten, dass spekulative Transaktionen kurzfristige "Schübe" von Wechselkursen, Rohstoffpreisen und Aktienkursen verstärken. Diese Preisschübe akkumulieren sich zu mehrjährigen Aufwertungs- bzw. Abwertungstrends (bull markets, bear markets), welche das fundamentale Gleichgewicht überschießen. Dem könnte eine Finanztransaktionssteuer mit einem geringen Steuersatz entgegenwirken. In Europa brächte eine solche Steuer bei einem Steuersatz von 0,1% des Transaktionsvolumens Einnahmen von 1,2% bis 3,1% des BIP, selbst bei einem Satz von nur 0,01% läge der Ertrag zwischen 0,6% und 0,8% des BIP.
Monographien, März 2008, 76 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Ökosoziales Forum Österreich
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Bundesministerium für Finanzen – Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
 
Speculative trading, especially in the financial derivatives markets, not only increases the volatility of exchange rates, prices for raw materials and share prices over the short run but also over the long run, driving these prices away from their "fundamental" equilibriums: long-term upward or downward trends are the result of an accumulation of very short-term price "runs". A general financial transaction tax (FTT) would make short-term transactions in the derivatives markets more expensive and thus help stabilise exchange rates, raw material prices and share prices. The study estimates the revenues to be obtained from a general FTT for European countries, major regions and on a global scale. For Austria, a tax rate of 0.1 percent should yield 0.62 percent of GDP; a tax rate of 0.01 percent would produce 0.21 percent of GDP. In Germany, revenues from tax rates of 0.1 percent, 0.05 percent and 0.01 percent would be 1.50 percent, 1.07 percent and 0.47 percent of GDP, respectively. For the global eonomy in total, a tax rate of 0.1 percent or 0.01 percent would produce 1.52 percent or 0.49 percent of the global GDP. In Europe and North America, a general FTT would yield approximately the same amount (between 2.2 percent and 0.7 percent of GDP).
Monographien, Juli 2018
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
 
This study estimates the potential revenues from introducing a financial transaction tax (FTT) through the enhanced cooperation set-up, as currently discussed between 10 EU countries (FTT10). In the EU the implementation of a financial transaction tax has been discussed for several years now, with the concept being redefined across several important dimensions. Using the methodology of the European Commission, we provide new country-specific estimates with the most recent data regarding the turnover volumes of key financial instruments for the FTT10 countries. We therefore can report both the overall revenue potential of an FTT as well as country-specific potential revenues. Depending on the key parameters (for elasticities, evasion effects and transaction costs) we estimate three different scenarios for the potential revenues from the FTT. We obtain potential revenues between 7.7 and 14.5 billion € for the FTT10 countries and between 158 and 380 million € for Austria. In the middle scenario, the estimated annual potential revenues are 11 billion € for the FTT10 countries and 242 million € for Austria. We also discuss the currently envisioned exemptions for certain types of products and market segments and estimate the revenue shortfall caused by these exemptions.
 
This policy brief summarises the main points of our detailed study on the concept of a financial transaction tax (FTT), the theoretical and empirical evidence in favour and against introducing it and the results of estimations of potential revenues from such a global FTT. We analyse the benefits and challenges of introducing a tax on financial transactions, putting special focus on the introduction of such a tax on a world-wide scale. For a number of reasons, international cooperation is deemed a central prerequisite for an efficient FTT. The purpose of the tax is to raise substantial revenues and help dampen excessive financial market speculation and market volatility. An FTT would ensure that the financial sector contributes more substantially to government revenues. In its optimal form, the tax would be broad-based and there will be no financial instrument types exempted. In a second step, we analyse from a political economy perspective the prospects, the current status, and the lessons learnt from the European discussion on the implementation of an FTT. Finally, we calculate the revenue potential of a global FTT and report how much revenues would accrue to specific countries and regions. We estimate that the tax, if imposed globally and taking into account evasion, relocation and lock-in effects, can bring significant revenues – between 237.9 and 418.8 billion $ annually. The baseline case delivers 326.9 billion $ overall for the global economy, which corresponds to 0.43 percent of global GDP. These are lower bounds for potential revenues due to missing data on a number of financial instrument types. For specific countries, in the baseline case this would result in 72.57 billion $ annual potential revenues for the USA (0.37 percent of GDP), 119.46 billion $ for the European Union (0.69 percent of GDP), 10.00 billion $ for Germany (0.27 percent of GDP), 9.99 billion $ for France (0.39 percent of GDP) and 19.99 billion $ for Japan (0.41 percent of GDP).