Agriculture contributes approximately 10 percent to the emission of greenhouse gases in Austria. Therefore, it is important
to evaluate the long-term development of the sector in order to assess whether Austria is achieving its emission targets.
In three scenarios, adaptation paths of Austrian agriculture to changed price developments and political framework conditions
up to 2050 are examined. The reduction of arable land observed so far was continued in the scenarios. The results show sustained
production incentives for milk production. Contrary to recent observations, the results indicate a reduction in poultry meat
production. In arable farming, maize production will increase, mainly due to the assumed productivity gains.
JEL-Codes:Q11
Keywords:Agriculture, Austria, Forecasts
Forschungsbereich:Klima-, Umwelt- und Ressourcenökonomie
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Abgeschlossen: 2018
Agriculture contributes approximately 10 percent to the emission of greenhouse gases in Austria. Therefore, it is important
to evaluate the long-term development of the sector in order to assess whether Austria is achieving its emission targets.
In a scenario "with existing measures" adaptation pathways of Austrian agriculture to market developments and political framework
conditions up to 2050 are examined. The most recent price forecasts of OECD and FAO are used as an input for the description
of market perspectives. A survey among agricultural experts in Austria is used to describe production conditions in detail.
Proposals for the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, published by the European Commission in mid-2019, are used for
the description of the policy environment. Climate change effects are not explicitly modelled but determined implicitly via
production and market responses.