Themenplattform "Europäische Herausforderungen"

Publikationen zum Thema "Europäische Herausforderungen"

EU-Governance, Budget- und Steuerpolitik (5 Treffer)

Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy, 2019, (3), S.171-177, https://rdcu.be/bFkvp
In the current negotiations about the European Union's next medium-term Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period 2021 to 2027, the system of own resources financing EU expenditures plays a relatively important role. Currently, the EU budget primarily rests on contributions from Member States (VAT- and GNI-based own resources), whereas "true" own resources have continuously lost importance. In 2017, VAT-based own resources accounted for 12.2 percent of overall EU revenues and GNI-based own resources for 56.6 percent, while traditional own resources contributed the rather small share of 14.7 percent.
Monographien, Oktober 2018, 97 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 21.11.2018 0:00
 
Das bestehende System der internationalen Unternehmensbesteuerung sieht für multinationale Unternehmen die getrennte Gewinnbesteuerung in jedem Land ihrer Tätigkeit vor. Dies bringt hohe Verwaltungskosten für Unternehmen und Steuerbehörden und die Möglichkeit von internationaler Gewinnverlagerung mit sich. Um diesen entgegenzuwirken, präsentierte die Europäische Kommission nun eine Neuauflage des Richtlinienvorschlages für eine gemeinsame konsolidierte Körperschaftsteuer-Bemessungsgrundlage (GKKB). Demnach sollen multinationale Konzerne innerhalb der EU die Bemessungsgrundlage für die Körperschaftsteuer einheitlich berechnen. In einem zweiten Schritt soll die unternehmensweite Bemessungsgrundlage konsolidiert und anhand eines Verteilungsschlüssels auf die Mitgliedsländer aufgeteilt werden (Formelzerlegung). Diese Studie untersucht die Auswirkungen dieses Vorschlages auf die fiskalische Situation in Österreich. Wie der Vergleich der harmonisierten Bemessungsgrundlage mit der aktuellen Regelung in Österreich vermuten lässt, wären die statischen fiskalischen Auswirkungen der Einführung einer einheitlichen Bemessungsgrundlage gering. Die Konsolidierung und Formelzerlegung würde einen mäßigen Rückgang der Steuereinnahmen in Österreich bewirken. Der zweite Teil der Studie beschäftigt sich mit längerfristigen Auswirkungen des GKKB-Vorschlages und untersucht die veränderten Anreize für Unternehmen und Steuerwettbewerb. Eine Einführung der GKKB würde den Steuerwettbewerb demnach nicht vollständig eliminieren, sondern vielmehr dessen Natur wesentlich verändern. Der Wettbewerb innerhalb des Geltungsbereiches verlagert sich von Gewinnverschiebung auf Aufteilungsfaktoren. Eine Möglichkeit, diesen Wettbewerb einzuschränken, wären EU-weit verbindliche Mindeststeuersätze.
Macroeconomic imbalances in the EMU are at the heart of the current crisis. One explanation for the high current account deficits in the Southern European countries is that they lack a large, competitive and export-oriented industrial sector. The paper tests the hypothesis that parts of the structural change which happened in the EU before 2008 were supported by the divergent unit labour cost developments in the EMU. We look into patterns of structural change and sectoral competitiveness in all EU member countries and assess their linkages by means of a descriptive analysis as well as through econometric estimations. Our results broadly support the hypothesis. Industrial policy, which aims at fostering new competitive export-oriented industries in Southern Europe in order to reduce macroeconomic imbalances in the EMU, should thus be combined with adjustments in relative labour costs.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (562), 43 Seiten
Online seit: 20.04.2018 0:00
The New View on fiscal policy (as coined by Furman 2016) represents a rethinking of the main-stream consensus on the optimal macroeconomic policy mix. It focuses on a reassessment of the relative effectiveness of fiscal policy and its ability to stabilise the economy when monetary policy reaches its limit. This paper aims to present in detail the main principles of the New View as proposed by Furman (2016), to extend them, bring additional theoretical and empirical evidence, as well as concrete policy implications for the architecture of the European Monetary Union. The New View builds upon five core principles: Firstly, fiscal policy is a significant and efficient complement to monetary policy at the zero lower bound on theoretical grounds. Secondly, we take a closer look at the empirical evidence on government spending multipliers in a recession, both in the DSGE and in the VAR literature, and show it points to much higher multipliers than in normal times. Thirdly, we provide evidence to why fiscal space is actually higher than normally perceived in a recession, because fiscal stimuli can pay for themselves by enhancing current growth and potential output. We shortly discuss whether it is not better to have a sustained stimulus rather than a short one and whether enhanced global spillover effects in an environment of insufficient aggregate demand further enhance fiscal policy effectiveness. All of the above arguments point to the welfare enhancing effects of fiscal stimulus during a zero lower bound episode and that an approach, led by the New View, would have delivered better macroeconomic outcomes during the Eurozone crisis. We then discuss what such an approach could mean for a more resilient EMU architecture and for stabilisation mechanisms in the Euro Area.
European Journal of Political Economy, 2017, S.128-143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.08.004
The need to balance austerity with growth policies has put government efficiency high on the economic policy agenda in Europe. Administrative reforms that boost the internal efficiency of bureaucracy can alleviate the trade-off between consolidation and public service provision. Against such a backdrop, this paper constructs (and makes available) a novel reform indicator to explore the determinants of public administration reforms for a panel of EU countries. The findings support political-economic reasoning: An economic and fiscal crisis is a potent catalyst for reforms, but a powerful bureaucracy constrains the opportunities of a crisis to promote reform. Furthermore, there is some suggestive evidence for horizontal learning from other EU countries, and for vertical learning associated with a particular type of EU cohesion spending.

Veränderungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und Sozialpolitik (5 Treffer)

Monographien, Juni 2018, 24 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 20.06.2018 0:00
The report is an update of a set of labour market indices first developed and tested in 2010 in collaboration with experts of the Vienna Chamber of Labour (AK). The Austrian labour market is examined relative to the other 27 EU countries according to the following key dimensions: overall labour market performance, participation of different groups of people, exclusion risks on the labour market, distribution of earnings and redistribution by the welfare state. The present report summarises the current results of the five dimensions and contains a cartographic overview.
Die Ereignisse seit dem Ausbruch der Großen Rezession haben gezeigt, dass die soziale Dimension der EU eine entscheidende Bedeutung für die Stabilität und politische Legitimation der EU einnimmt. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Rolle und das Potential der sozialinvestiven Perspektive auf den Wohlfahrtsstaat für die Weiterentwicklung des europäischen Integrationsprojekts. Dazu werden in einem ersten Schritt die Kerngedanken dieses sozialpolitischen Ansatzes erläutert und ihre Bedeutung mit Blick auf die EU und insbesondere auf die Währungsunion beleuchtet. In einem zweiten Schritt wird analysiert, in welcher Form und in welchem Ausmaß der sozialinvestive Ansatz im politischen Prozess der EU verankert ist, wobei der Fokus auf den jüngsten Entwicklungen und Initiativen liegt.
Werner Eichhorst (IZA), Tito Boeri (FRDB), Michela Braga (FRDB), An de Coen (IDEA Consult), Galasso Vicenzo (FRDB), Maarten Gerard (IDEA Consult), Michael J. Kendzia (IZA), Christine Mayrhuber (WIFO), Jakob Louis Pedersen (NIRAS), Ricarda Schmidl (IZA), Nadia Steiber (WIFO)
Monographien, April 2013, 140 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Europäisches Parlament
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit – Fondazione Rodolfo DeBenedetti – IDEA Consult – NIRAS Consultants A/S
 
This study provides an overview of the employment situation of young and older workers in the EU countries, setting out the most recent developments during the crisis and dealing with policies implemented to promote the employment of both groups. The evidence collected shows that there is no competition between young and older workers on the labour market. Structural or general policies to enhance the functioning of EU labour markets are crucial to improving the situation of both groups. However, the responsibility for employment policies still predominantly lies within the member countries, although initiatives taken at the EU level can provide added value, particularly through stimulating the exchange of experiences and facilitating regional and cross-border mobility throughout the EU.
IZA Discussion Papers, 2011, (6080), 25 Seiten

Regionale Disparitäten und Strukturwandel (4 Treffer)

This paper analyses the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy on firm growth in the programming period 2007-2013 in seven European countries. Results show that Cohesion Policy support promotes firm growth in size (value added and employment) more than in productivity. However, even when the policy is the same and similar projects and beneficiaries are considered, its effectiveness varies across different territorial contexts, among but also within countries. In several cases, the impact of grants on firm growth is larger in regions with lower income or scant endowments of territorial assets, most likely because firms in those regions cannot rely on external assets.
Journal of Regional Science, 2018, (1), S.81-99
We examine the effects of Eastern and Northern enlargement of the EU on regional business-cycle synchronisation and sector specialisation. Difference-in-difference estimates show that cyclical synchronicity decreased and differences in sector structure increased in acceding region-pairs after Eastern enlargement. For Northern enlargement, results are more ambiguous. Moreover, in both enlargement episodes, region-pairs with highly synchronous business cycles before accession experienced weaker cyclical and structural convergence than region-pairs with less synchronous cycles. Likewise, region-pairs with more similar sector structures before accession experienced stronger divergence (or weaker convergence) of structural similarity and business-cycle synchronicity after the enlargement. We argue that these results call for developing more differentiated hypotheses on EU enlargement's effects on business-cycle synchronisation and sector specialisation.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – metis GmbH Wien – European Association for Information on Local Development
This study analyses three questions in relation to the evaluation of investment support in Rural Development Programmes (RDP) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Different evaluation methods are classified according to their appropriateness and suitability to measure efficiency, effectiveness and impact of investment support measures. In order to evaluate the causality between policy interventions and outcomes a number of specific econometric methods or experiments are necessary. Theory-based assessments and qualitative participatory approaches cannot be used to derive quantitative results. In order to obtain such results, economic modelling approaches like input-output analyses or econometric methods must be used. A further element of the analysis is to estimate efficiency, effectiveness and impact of investment support measures in 11 programme areas of the EU. The quantitative results show a wide range of results that depend on structural aspects of the regions under consideration and programme-specific factors. With the data available, a causal statistical link between efficiency and targeting was not found. However, a case study demonstrated that targeting via eligibility criteria is more transparent than selection through ranking while aid intensity differentiation does not always have statistically significant effects on targeting. • With the following contributions by WIFO staff members: Jerzy Michalek, Ulrich B. Morawetz, Marili Parissaki, Demetris Papodopoulos, Andreas Resch, Angelos Sanopoulos, Franz Sinabell, Hannes Wimmer, Methodology and tools of the study – Ulrich B. Morawetz, Franz Sinabell, Answers to Evaluation Questions – Jerzy Michalek, Ulrich B. Morawetz, Marili Parissaki, Demetris Papodopoulos, Andreas Resch, Angelos Sanopoulos, Franz Sinabell, Hannes Wimmer, Herta Tödtling-Schönhofer, Conclusions and recommendations

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und unternehmerische Innovationen (21 Treffer)

Anna Dzienis, Arkadiusz Michał Kowalski, Marek Lachowicz, Marta Mackiewicz, Tomasz M. Napiórkowski, Marzenna Anna Weresa (Warsaw School of Economics)
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Warsaw School of Economics
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
This report provides the analyses of four areas of structural reforms undertaken in Poland in the period 2013-2018, i.e.: Innovation and R&D, analysed in Part I, The availability of suitable labour supply and skills, analysed in Part II, The improved business (regulatory) environment, analysed in Part III, and Measures to foster business growth, such as "Strategy for Responsible Development", "Constitution for Business" and "Constitution for Science", which are the focus of Part IV. These four areas are interrelated. Strategic documents designed and approved in the years 2017-2018, such as "Strategy for Responsible Development", "Constitution for Business" and "Constitution for Science" created a framework for the conditions for conducting business activity in Poland. The regulatory environment for doing business concerns the process of law making, which impacts not only the content of strategic documents and other legal acts, but also their quality. These two areas shape "the rules of the game" in the Polish economy and have an impact on the other two areas studied in this report, i.e., the labour market and research and innovation.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institute of World Economics of the Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Slow post-crisis total factor productivity growth is a significant policy challenge for many European countries in general and for Hungary in particular. This report aims at providing a comprehensive analysis of the processes behind productivity growth slowdown in Hungary based on micro data from administrative sources between 2001 and 2016. In particular, the report aims to contribute to four ongoing debates: First, it attempts to document the productivity growth slowdown in detail to uncover potential sources of heterogeneity. The second overarching question, related to frontier and non-frontier firms, is the idea of the so-called duality in Hungary. The concept of duality emphasises the large differences in terms of productivity and wages between globally oriented, often foreign-owned, large firms and the rest of the economy. Duality also refers to the lack of interconnectedness between these two groups of firms, in terms of supplier-buyer linkages and worker flows, which limits positive intergroup spillovers. The third group of questions relates to how efficiently resources are allocated across firms. Similarly to other countries, within-industry productivity differences are at least a magnitude larger than between-industry differences. This implies that the efficiency of the allocation of resources within an industry (i.e., whether more productive firms have access to more labour and capital) matters much for aggregate productivity. Finally, the report is interested in the extent to which sectors and industries differ in terms of productivity and firm dynamics.
Jan-Maarten de Vet, Andreas Pauer, Erik Merkus, Paul Baker, Ana Rosa Gonzalez-Martinez, Tamas Kiss-Galfalvi (ECORYS), Gerhard Streicher (WIFO), Ana Rincon-Aznar (NIESR, London)
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: ECORYS Holding BV – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London
Online seit: 13.03.2018 0:00
The mature cement and lime industry sectors are vital for a range of downstream industries, products and services. Over the past 10 years, both sectors have witnessed major downturns, and future prospects are uncertain. These sectors and, in turn, policy-makers, need a better understanding of how resilient the sectors are when responding to external shocks – notably to changes in demand, but also to regulatory reforms and new initiatives (at EU, national, regional and local levels).
Michael Peneder (WIFO), Christian Rammer (ZEW)
Monographien, Jänner 2018, 242 Seiten
Authors: Michael Peneder, Andreas Reinstaller, Stefan Weingärtner (WIFO), Florence Blandinières, Niklas Dürr, Stefan Frübing, Sven Heim, Bettina Peters, Christian Rammer (ZEW) – Disclaimer: This report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG GROW, under Specific Contract No SI2-750358 implementing the Framework Service Contract ENTR/300/PP/2013/FC-WIFO coordinated by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO, coordinator: Andreas Reinstaller). The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission's behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 21.12.2017 13:34
 
The study serves as a background document for the European Commission and is conducted in close cooperation with the ZEW Mannheim. The main tasks are to define the concept of competitiveness at the micro, meso, and macro levels of economic activity, to establish a set of indicators that is suitable for comparing the competitive performance of EU countries, to develop a systematic grid of indicators and policy objectives, and to determine the strengths and weaknesses of commonly used indicators, including their associated measurement problems or biases.
Iulia Siedschlag, Mattia Di Ubaldo, Manuel Tong Koecklin (ESRI)
Monographien, Dezember 2017, 128 Seiten, https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/28182
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Economic and Social Research Institute
Ireland's attractiveness to foreign direct investment is linked to a range of factors including participation in the European Single Market, skilled and flexible labour force, business-friendly environment, competitive statutory and effective tax rates. The productivity gap between foreign-owned firms and Irish-owned firms has increased over time and is larger in services in comparison to manufacturing. Relative to Irish-owned firms, foreign-owned firms are more productive, pay higher wages, invest more in tangible and intangible assets. On average, relative to Irish-owned firms, foreign-owned firms export a larger proportion of their output and import more relative to their output. Foreign-owned firms export and import a significantly large number of products in comparison to Irish-owned firms, 2 to 3 times more in recent years. Foreign-owned firms export to a larger number of destinations and import from more countries both EEA and extra-EEA countries. The analysis also shows that foreign-owned firms are integrated in more complex production and trade networks with a higher number of product-country combinations per firm. An interesting feature is the more important integration of foreign-owned firms in extra-EEA trade while Irish-owned firms tend to trade predominantly with EEA countries (mainly the UK). The evidence indicates only very limited intra-industry and intra-region FDI spillovers. It appears that Irish-owned firms benefit in terms of their export intensity from the presence in the same industry of affiliates of multinationals based outside the EU. However, the presence of multinationals crowd-out the export performance of Irish-owned firms within the same region. While the presence in the same region of affiliates of multinationals based in other EU countries affects negatively the export performance of Irish-owned firms in manufacturing, the presence of affiliates of non-EU multinationals has a negative effect on the export performance of Irish-owned firms in services.
Monographien, Dezember 2017, 352 Seiten
Studie von: IDEA Consult – Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Technopolis Consulting Group Belgium SPRL
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Online seit: 07.03.2018 0:00
This report presents the results from a large-scale representative survey among researchers in the EU. The findings illustrate the diversity of the EU higher education landscape with respect to PhD studies, career paths, higher education systems, working conditions, international, interdisciplinary and intersectoral mobility, as well as the attractiveness of ERA.
Klaus S. Friesenbichler (Projektleitung), Christian Glocker, Werner Hölzl, Serguei Kaniovski, Agnes Kügler, Andreas Reinstaller, Gerhard Streicher (WIFO), Iulia Siedschlag, Mattia Di Ubaldo, Zuzanna Studnicka (ESRI), Robert Stehrer, Roman Stöllinger, Sandra Leitner, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Oliver Reiter, Amat Adarov, Alexandra Bykova (wiiw)
Monographien, Dezember 2017, 367 Seiten
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Economic and Social Research Institute – Wiener Institut für internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Online seit: 08.01.2018 0:00
 
This report offers an extensive analysis of the effects of the EU Single Market. It sheds light on four interrelated aspects: It first reveals the asymmetric economic performance across member countries, which also mirrors structural differences. These differences in economic outcomes are next confronted with measures of the Single Market, economic institutions, changes in demand patterns, industrial turbulence and producer price developments. Next, the changes in value chains are tracked over time, and also put into a global perspective. Eventually, firm level evidence complements the findings. The results are highly relevant for economic policies at the member country and the EU level.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Sociedade Portuguesa de Inovação – IDEA Consult – Wiener Institut für internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche – Economic and Social Research Institute – Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for World Economics
Augusto Medina, Audry Maulana, Douglas Thompson, Nishant Shandilya, Samuel Almeida (SPI), Aki Aapaoja, Matti Kutila (VTT), Erik Merkus, Koen Vervoort (ECORYS)
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Sociedade Portuguesa de Inovação – Technical Research Centre of Finland – ECORYS Holding BV
Online seit: 19.07.2017 0:00
The study provides a clearer picture of the EU's current position compared to its third country counterparts in the connected and automated driving (C&AD) sector. It analyses the strategies, funding programmes, standards, regulations and value chains for C&AD in the selected countries. It aimed to review and analyse C&AD technologies and to assess the effectiveness of existing EU support measures for the sector. Based on a comparative analysis of public support measures, programmes and regulations put in place in the USA, Japan, South Korea, China and the EU, we assess the technological and commercialisation readiness level of automated and connected driving and the effectiveness of instruments available for supporting the development of C&AD.
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – ECORYS Holding BV – Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
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Klima-, Energie- und Umweltpolitik (4 Treffer)

in: Stefan E. Weishaar, Janet E. Milne, Larry Kreiser, Hope Ashiabor, Michael Mehling (Hrsg.), The Green Market Transition
Critical Issues in Environmental Taxation, 2017, (19), http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/the-green-market-transition
Stefan Schleicher, Andrei Marcu, Angela Köppl, Jürgen Schneider, Milan Elkerbout, Andreas Türk, Alexander Zeitlberger
CEPS Carbon Market Forum, Option Paper, 2015, 72 Seiten, http://www.wifo.ac.at/bibliothek/archiv-intern/RSN39962.pdf
Online seit: 04.05.2016 13:49
in: Larry Kreiser, Soocheol Lee, Kazuhiro Ueta, Janet E. Milne, Hope Ashiabor (Hrsg.), Environmental Taxation and Green Fiscal Reform
Buchbeiträge, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, Jänner 2014, S.113-125
Online seit: 21.04.2015 11:45
Monographien, Juni 2012, 44 Seiten
The project "ICPIA – Coping with Complexity in the Evolving International Climate Policy Institutional Architecture" was funded by the Austrian "Klima- und Energiefonds" and carried out within the research programme "ACRP".
Auftraggeber: Klima- und Energiefonds
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Climate Strategies
 
In order to successfully tackle the challenge of limiting climate change it has to be recognised that climate policy is a cross-sectoral issue and needs to be firmly integrated in general and sector-specific policy areas that frame economic activity and societal development. Experience however shows that there is a divide between the need of addressing climate policy as cross-sectoral issue and short-term policy decisions that imply a low hierarchical rank for climate policy versus other policy areas. Still a big step is necessary to depart from climate policy as add-on policy area towards comprehensive integration. This paper addresses the topic of climate policy integration. We focus on horizontal policy integration at the EU level with respect to general strategic policy papers, energy policy and the EU's Multi-annual Financial Framework. Our qualitative appraisal confirms that while there is a high general commitment to climate change action on EU level, evidence on climate policy integration into specific policies analysed in this paper is not clear cut: While recent energy policy documents generally refer to climate change as a central motivation, the EU budget does not mention climate change as a budgetary priority. On the strategic level, the relationship of energy policy and climate policy is partly synergetic (e.g., the objective of a sustainable energy system) and partly conflicting (e.g., the emphasis on fossil fuels in order to ensure energy security). Specific energy policy documents generally reinforce climate policy targets. Climate policy integration is not reflected in the EU budget: no explicit resources are dedicated to climate change issues in the Multi-annual Financial Framework; in cohesion funding – to which a significant part of the EU budget accrues – climate-friendliness of the proposed projects is also no funding criterion. Quite the contrary, a large portion of cohesion funding is allocated to investment in road transport entailing adverse effects for climate policy.

Impact-Evaluierungen (3 Treffer)

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.
Monographien, September 2017, 59 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Europäisches Parlament
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel
Online seit: 10.10.2017 0:00
 
This report summarises empirical facts about the economic impact of the EU sanctions against Russia and the Russian countersanctions, both implemented in the summer of 2014. The observed decline in trade volumes between the EU and Russia is not only due to the sanctions, but also by other economic factors, such as the downturn of the Russian economy, largely caused by the falling oil price and the ensuing ruble depreciation. Furthermore, empirical evidence suggests that European and Russian companies alike managed to partly divert trade flows to other international markets in response to the deteriorating trade relationships. Overall trade diversion, however, cannot nearly compensate for losses of EU exports to Russia and thus mitigate the economy-wide negative impacts. Finally, descriptive evidence and additional information seem to indicate that compliance with the sanctions was partly circumvented right after the implementation of the sanctions in 2014, in particular for agri-food goods via countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Legal trade diversion through countries unaffected by the sanctions has also taken place. It is important to emphasise that this study does not assess the political costs or effectiveness of the sanctions, but merely analyses potential economic costs caused by all sanction measures in place.
Monographien, Luxembourg, März 2017, 66 Seiten, http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/313390
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
This report serves as an update of "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output model for the EU 27" by Kratena et al. (2013), i.e., the manual of the first version of the FIDELIO model. FIDELIO fits into the generation of macroeconomic multi-sectoral input-output models whose earliest contributions include the Cambridge MDM (Barker, 1976) and the INFORUM (Almon et al., 1974) models for the UK and the USA, respectively. Such econometric input-output models have grown over time in terms of complexity and scope and are used for macroeconomic modelling purposes alongside other types of general equilibrium models (including DSGE ones). This report explores the theoretical foundations of the latest version of the model, FIDELIO 2 (which has been developed between 2014 and 2016), and contains a description of its main features. With respect to its initial version, the model has been extended in a number of ways. For instance, and without entering into detail at this stage, seven non-EU countries are now included in the model (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the USA) in addition to the 27 EU countries already included in the first version; both trade and household final demand are now modelled in a considerably more complex way than before; there is an environmental block dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, and the base year is 2007 rather than 2005. Thus, it was deemed necessary to present all the new model characteristics in an organic way via the present technical report. The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a concise macro-overview of FIDELIO 2 which relies very much on the first section of the FIDELIO 1 manual by Kratena et al. (2013). Section 2 presents the economic theories underlying the core blocks of FIDELIO 2. This report serves two main purposes. First, it is an adequate resource for the readers who are interested in the model's main features. Second, it facilitates the process of understanding all the details of FIDELIO 2 for those who want to learn the logic and the theory behind its construction. Such readers are expected to grasp the general structure of the model by reading Section 1, helped by the overview of the model's main economic flows contained in Figure 1. Then, Section 2 goes through the theoretical foundations of the various model blocks.