WIFO Bulletin

The WIFO Bulletin is published online and focuses on

  • International and Austrian economic outlooks,
  • Recent economic developments,
  • Studies on European integration.

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You may find all articles of the Bulletin's predecessor here:  Austrian Economic Quarterly

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Recent issues (115 hits)

WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(13), pp.118-128
Online since: 10.12.2019 0:00
 
Economic growth in Austria is gradually decelerating to a moderate pace over the forecast period. The lack of dynamism in the global economy dampens exports and manufacturing output. Yet, favourable financing conditions, fiscal stimulus and resilient private consumption provide support to economic activity. GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2019 and 1.4 percent in 2020.
 
The global economy has been gradually weakening since the first half of 2018. It is predicted that growth will remain sluggish in the coming years. The Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1.4 percent per year on average in the forecast period 2020-2024 (2015-2019 +1.9 percent p.a.), slightly (+0.1 percentage point) stronger than the euro area average. The tax reliefs for private household incomes (family bonus and measures to support low-income earners in 2020 and 2021) will continue to support consumer demand. The average growth of private consumption over the forecast period is predicted at 1.5 percent p.a. (2015-2019 +1.2 percent p.a.). The moderate but stable expansion will allow a steady increase in employment of 1.0 percent p.a. (2015-2019 +1.7 percent p.a.) and the unemployment rate will remain at around 7½ percent. In the medium term, price increases according to the consumer price index will be moderate at 1¾ percent p.a., and the inflation differential to the euro area is expected to remain at around ¼ percentage point. Based on the forecast of nominal economic growth at +3.2 percent p.a. and the assumed economic policy measures, the fiscal balance of public households will remain positive over the forecast period at around ½ percent of nominal GDP. As a result, the government debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) is predicted to fall to around 56 percent by 2024.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(11), pp.90-98
Online since: 10.12.2019 0:00
 
In 2017, at 10.6 percent, the average cash-flow-to-sales ratio for the Austrian manufacturing industry was again significantly higher than in the previous year (10.2 percent). According to the WIFO estimate it however stagnated in 2018. In 2019, the cash-flow ratio is expected to decline according to the estimate using a dynamic panel econometric model for the manu-facturing industries.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(10), pp.83-89
Online since: 15.11.2019 15:00
 
The weakness of the global economy is dampening the Austrian business cycle. Export growth slowed noticeably in the second quarter, and GDP growth eased to +0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter. Private household consumption, however, continued to increase and supported overall growth. The prospects for the Austrian economy stabilised recently. According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), company assessments brightened somewhat in August, especially in the manufacturing sector. The recovery on the labour market is coming to a halt, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stagnated in August. The inflation rate fell slightly to 1.4 percent in July.
 
In the second quarter of 2019, Austrian GDP grew by 0.3 percent compared to the previous period (after +0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 and +0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018). Although the expansion of previous years continued, it has slowed continuously since the beginning of 2018. The positive development of the real economy continues to be reflected in the labour market in the form of an increase in employment and a decline in unemployment. Inflation has recently slackened.
 
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(7), pp.57-63
Online since: 29.08.2019 0:00
 
In the USA and the euro area, the economy grew more strongly than most recently in the first quarter of 2019. Some indicators continue to point to a slowdown. However, the economy appears to have stabilised somewhat again. In Austria, on the other hand, growth weakened again somewhat in the first quarter. Manufacturing in particular is suffering from the global economic downturn, while the domestic economy is developing robustly. The recovery on the labour market is gradually flattening out. Inflation remains moderate.
 
The global economy reached its business cycle peak in 2018 and growth is likely to slow in the coming years. Over the forecast period 2019-2023, the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent p.a. (2014-2018 +1.8 percent p.a.), slightly stronger than the euro area average. The income tax relief for private households granted by the family bonus will support consumer demand in 2019 and especially in 2020. Over the forecast period, private consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent (2014-2018 +1.0 percent p.a.). Employment will expand faster than labour supply up to 2020 as a result of the economic conditions and the unemployment rate will remain at 7.3 percent. However, from 2021 labour supply will again grow faster than demand, so that the unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent by the end of the forecasting period. Inflationary pressure will remain moderate in the medium term, and the positive inflation differential with the euro area should continue to narrow, but not reverse. WIFO expects an average consumer price inflation rate of 1.8 percent p.a. Based on the projected economic outlook and the assumed economic policy conditions, the overall fiscal balance will remain positive over the forecasting period and even improve slightly. As a result, the public debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) will fall by around 17½ percentage points as compared with 2018 to below 57 percent by 2023.
 
Following a slowdown in the global economic momentum over the previous year, world GDP expanded moderately in the first quarter of 2019. In line with this, domestic export growth weakened slightly. The domestic demand is supporting the Aus-trian economic activity. GDP in Austria rose by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(4), pp.28-39
Online since: 07.05.2019 0:00
 
Under the impact of sluggish global trade, industrial activity in Austria has moved to a downward trend. On major export markets, demand for Austrian manufactures nevertheless proves resilient (USA, CEEC). The temporary setback in German motor car production and its repercussions on Austrian suppliers are gradually subsiding, and the USA-China trade conflict has eased. Moreover, continued solid demand for services helps sustain overall economic activity. Annual average GDP growth in Austria is expected to slow from 2.7 percent in 2018 to 1.7 percent in 2019; from the middle of the year, demand and output are set to stabilise, with growth in 2020 staying around 1.8 percent.
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