This paper examines broad patterns of structural change for a large number of countries on a global scale and for a smaller
set of advanced industrialised countries over time. The findings show that structural change over the past decades followed
the three-sector hypothesis. The past decades were characterised by the rise of the service sector, driven especially by business
services and non-market service. At the same time as manufacturing sectors are declining in terms of shares, they remain the
sectors with the highest contributions to aggregate productivity growth. An analysis of determinants of structural change
confirms that country competencies related to institutional quality, knowledge generation and industrial application of the
new knowledge are an important driving force of structural changes towards services, but that they have a heterogeneous impact
on manufacturing subsectors. High technology manufacturing share seems not to be characterised by a tendency to decline with
the development of country competencies. Broad policy implications are discussed.
This paper examines the association between participation in global value chains and financial globalisation measured by international
net and capital flows. The results show that financial globalisation and the rise of global value chains are related but not
two sides of the same coin. In fact, we find that GVC participation is positively associated with equity capital flows but
negatively associated with debt capital flows. We also study the association of GVC participation and capital flows with aggregate
economic outcomes. The findings show that both GVC participation and equity flows affect the share of mortgage and business
credit. But we uncover also important differences in the impact of capital flows between advanced and emerging countries.
Regarding changes in the economic structure our results suggest a positive association of both GVC participation and equity
inflows on the manufacturing share, while debt inflows are primarily associated with a growth of the service sector in advanced
economies, but not in emerging and developing countries. The finding that there is no strong association between the globalisation
indicators and innovation suggests that the fragmentation of value chains leads to functional specialisation in tasks and
tends to weaken the link between innovation and production at country level. We find in addition that a higher GVC participation
is weakly associated with a higher growth of government revenue, as are debt flows but only in advances countries. This finding
suggests also that debt flows were redirected primarily into safe countries in advanced countries.
This paper examines structural change in global trade and its impact in the development of manufacturing shares across countries
over time. It focuses on the dynamics of variety creation and destruction in exports and links the observed outcomes to the
development of manufacturing shares across countries. The results show that while there is an inverse-U-shaped relationship
with income per capita levels across countries of manufacturing shares, a specialisation in product lines with a high likelihood
of displacing other exports and a high propensity to induce a clustering in the uptake of exports in related product lines
is positively associated with manufacturing shares. Controlling for income levels more complex export portfolios are weakly
associated with smaller manufacturing shares. These effects are mitigated when these parameters combine at the extreme ends
of their values range.
