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Using data for the period 2010M06-2017M02, this study investigates the possibility of predicting total tourist arrivals to four Austrian cities (Graz, Innsbruck, Salzburg, and Vienna) from LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of the destination management organisations of these cities. Google Trends data are also incorporated in investigating whether forecast models with LIKES and/or with Google Trends deliver more accurate forecasts. To capture the dynamics in the data, the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model class is employed. Taking into account the daily frequency of the original LIKES data, the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model class is employed as well. While time-series benchmarks from the naive, error-trend-seasonal, and autoregressive moving average model classes perform best for Graz and Innsbruck across forecast horizons and forecast accuracy measures, ADL models incorporating only LIKES or both LIKES and Google Trends generally outperform their competitors for Salzburg. For Vienna, the MIDAS model including both LIKES and Google Trends produces the smallest forecast accuracy measure values for most forecast horizons.

The topic of this seminar is the effort of EU and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) to improve trade relations and to use the momentum of induced economic growth to achieve goals of common interest that go beyond improving the flow of goods. It explores the state of knowledge, with a focus on agricultural and environmental topics, presents quantitative assessments and identifies issues which need further inquiry. The findings are intended to support facts-oriented discussions about Mercosur in Austria.

Aufgrund der Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der COVID-19-Pandemie ist die Teilnahme an der Pressekonferenz nur mit persönlicher Einladung und Anmeldung möglich. Die Pressekonferenz wird deshalb auch online übertragen, Presseanfragen können mittels Chat-Funktion gestellt werden. Der Livestream wird am 26. Juni 2020 um 10:30 Uhr hier abrufbar sein: https://events.streaming.at/ihs-20200626.

WIFO's Swedish Euroconstruct partner Prognoscentret AB is pleased to invite to the 89th Euroconstruct Conference on 12 June 2020. Due to the extraordinary circumstances right now, this summer's conference will be organised as a live streamed conference from a top-class studio in Stockholm. Join us to receive the first estimates on the impact of the Coronavirus on European construction. Enjoy lectures on housing, non-residential construction, civil engineering and construction as well as related topics presented by leading experts within the fields of forecasting, European economic policies and politics, sustainable communication, demographic and societal trends. The conference will of course be interactive, meaning you will have far-reaching opportunities to comment and ask questions directly to the host and speakers throughout the day! See the full programme and details on our conference website.

Postponed until further notice! – The Euroframe group of research institutes (CASE, CPB, DIW, ESRI, ETLA, IfW, NIESR, OFCE, PROMETEIA, WIFO) will hold its 17th annual Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union in London on 5 June 2020. The aim of this conference is to bring together academics and policy-oriented economists by providing a forum for debate on economic policy issues relevant in the European context. The 17th Conference will focus on the challenges posed by climate change. Public opinion has changed and European policy-makers, businesses and the financial sector have started to recognise the importance of climate change and biodiversity on the lives of people and the economy. Climate action must stand at the core of long-term growth and infrastructure planning. How do policy-makers ensure that the costs and benefits of climate action are shared equitably at a time when multilateral frameworks have come under threat?

Aufgrund der aktuellen Ausnahmesituation sowie der durch die Bundesregierung getroffenen Maßnahmen im Kampf gegen das Coronavirus wird das WIFO die Pressekonferenz zum Konjunkturszenario für das Jahr 2020 am Donnerstag, 26. März 2020 um 10.30 Uhr gemeinsam mit dem IHS in das APA-Pressezentrum verlegen und dabei die Medienteilnahme limitieren. Eine Teilnahme vor Ort ist nur mehr dem Österreichischen Rundfunk und der Austria Presse Agentur gestattet. Allen anderen Medienvertreterinnen und Medienvertretern ist eine Teilnahme bis auf weiteres nicht möglich. Die Austria Presse Agentur wird Livestreaming und audiovisuelles Material zur Verfügung stellen. Pressefragen können mittels Chat-Funktion gestellt werden. Weitere Informationen werden zeitgerecht kommuniziert.

Entspricht die Einschätzung der Bevölkerung zur vergangenen und prognostizierten Entwicklung des österreichischen Alterssicherungssystems der Faktenlage? Zum Auftakt des Gallup-WIFO-Meinungschecks widmen sich WIFO-Leiter Christoph Badelt, Gallup-COO Andrea Fronaschütz, WIFO-Pensionsexpertin Christine Mayrhuber und WIFO-Prognoseverantwortlicher Stefan Schiman im Rahmen einer Pressekonferenz am 20. Februar 2020 um 10:00 Uhr im Presseclub Concordia (Bankgasse 8, 1010 Wien) dem Thema Pensionen. Mit dem Gallup-WIFO-Meinungscheck starten das Österreichische Gallup Institut und das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) eine Initiative, um den oftmals emotional und ideologisch erhitzten Diskurs in unserer Gesellschaft zu versachlichen. Bei der gemeinsamen Untersuchungsreihe wird die Meinung der Bevölkerung zu volkswirtschaftlichen Themen erhoben und evidenzbasierten Informationen gegenübergestellt.

How do welfare levels influence migrants' location choice? The welfare magnet hypothesis claims that migrants will be disproportionately drawn to high-welfare locations. However, the hypothesis has proven difficult to verify empirically because of the multiplicity of factors influencing mobility choices. Due to a policy of initial random dispersion of refugees and stark regional differences in welfare levels in Austria, it is possible to causally identify the effect of welfare on location choice. In some Austrian Länder (federal states) welfare levels for refugees differ depending on a person's protection status, while in others, they do not. On top, there have been three reforms of the welfare system in specific states, which led to reductions in welfare levels of 30 to 60 percent, generating variation over time. The results show strong evidence for welfare levels having an effect on location choice. However, for understanding overall mobility patterns of refugees the importance of state specific support structures cannot be overstated.

Cross-country comparison is critical to understand the success of some regions and the stagnation of others. There are regions in Latin America that consistently show high levels of economic, social and environmental indicators. These regions have a high endowment of factors associated with regional competitiveness. Research establishes that regions such as the Metropolitan region in Chile compete for foreign investment while companies within regions like O'Higgins and Antofagasta regions in Chile compete for product placement in international markets. These types of competition take place mainly between countries, but there are no comparative studies of regional competitiveness between countries for Latin America that allow to assess this type of competition. Using an input-output competitiveness model regional competitiveness is measured for Chile, Colombia and Mexico for the 2008-2017 period. The measurement allows for a comparison of regional competitiveness and performance across countries. The research results show that most of the differences in performance are mainly explained by factors such as education, technological skills, and training.