WIFO Working Papers

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Die WIFO Working Papers beruhen nicht notwendigerweise auf einer abgestimmten Position des WIFO. Die Autorinnen und Autoren wurden über die Richtlinien der Österreichischen Agentur für wissenschaftliche Integrität (ÖAWI) zur Guten Wissenschaftlichen Praxis informiert, insbesondere bezüglich der Dokumentation aller Elemente, die für eine Nachvollziehbarkeit der Ergebnisse notwendig sind.

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Aktuelle Ausgaben (711 Treffer)

WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (620), 30 Seiten
Online seit: 20.01.2021 0:00
From Aristotle to Ricardo and Menger, economists have emphasised the function of money as a medium of exchange together with the intrinsic qualities that increase its saleability and credibility as a most liquid store of value. But the social institution of money co-evolves with technology. It is significant that the advent of digital cryptocurrencies was initiated by computer scientists and has taken economists completely by surprise. As a consequence, it also forces our profession to rethink the basic phenomenology of money. In accordance with the views of Wieser and Schumpeter, digitization brings to the fore its immaterial function as a standard of value and social technology of account, which increasingly absorbs that of a medium of exchange. The potential impact on economic policy is huge. The variety of different crypto coins has proven the technical feasibility of competing private currencies as proposed by Hayek. In the long term, however, there is reason to doubt the persistence of intense competition. One must fear that major digital platforms will extend their current dominance in multisided virtual market places to include digital payments and money. Central banks are increasingly anxious to preserve public sovereignty over the common unit of account and consider issuing their own digital fiat money. After the current era of intense creative experimentation, the potentially new spontaneous order of private crypto-currencies is likely to be supplanted by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the design of which will depend on deliberate public choices and policies.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (619), 51 Seiten
Online seit: 20.01.2021 0:00
In view of the challenges posed by climate change and the increase in climate targets by 2030 in the EU, as well as Austria's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2040, the question of effective climate policy instruments is gaining in importance. The pricing of CO2, for instance in the form of a carbon tax, and the question of its effects are therefore attracting increasing attention in the academic as well as economic and environmental policy debate. The paper provides a detailed overview of the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of carbon taxes. The focus is on the most important impact dimensions of carbon taxes: environmental effectiveness, effects on important macroeconomic variables (especially growth and employment), effects on innovation and competitiveness, distributional effects, and public acceptance.
Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Dezember 2020. Graphische Darstellung (Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of December 2020. Graphical Presentation)
WIFO-Konjunkturtest, 2020, (12), 10 Seiten
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Europäische Kommission, GD Wirtschaft und Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 07.01.2021 14:00
Die Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen stabilisierten sich im Dezember nach dem Einbruch im November. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex stieg um 4,6 Punkte (saisonbereinigt), lag jedoch mit –10,4 Punkten weiter im negativen Bereich.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (618), 21 Seiten
Online seit: 12.11.2020 0:00
This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics. For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (617), 51 Seiten
Online seit: 03.11.2020 0:00
This analysis attempts to offer a counter strategy to the idea of anti-globalization and de-growth that had flared up again since the COVID-19 crisis. All international forecasts expect for the year 2020 the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Countries which can afford it, run a super-Keynesian fiscal policy to fight the crisis, accompanied by an extremely expansionary monetary policy in the USA (Fed) and in the euro area (ECB). As a third policy instrument besides fiscal and monetary policy, an aggressive pro-globalization trade policy could relieve and strengthen the crisis macro policy. To demonstrate which options are available we analyze nine mega free trade agreements, some of them are already in effect, others will be enacted soon. Overall, not the big players in world trade, the EU and the USA win by a simultaneous implementation of the nine FTAs. Japan would be the winner because it participates in four combinations (overlaps) of FTAs: EU–Japan, USA–Japan, CPTPP and RCEP. The USA hardly gain from further globalization. Similarly, the EU 27 cannot profit much from further globalization.
COVID-19 bremst Konjunkturerholung. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom November 2020 (COVID-19 Slows Down Economic Recovery. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2020)
WIFO-Konjunkturtest, 2020, (11), 13 Seiten
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Europäische Kommission, GD Wirtschaft und Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 27.11.2020 14:00
Die Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen trübten sich im November im Zuge der zweiten Welle der COVID-19-Pandemie und der damit verbundenen Einschränkungsmaßnahmen ein. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex sank um 5,2 Punkte und lag mit –14,7 Punkten wieder deutlicher im negativen Bereich. Die Unternehmen beurteilten die aktuelle Lage schlechter, die Erwartungen für die nächsten Monate fielen skeptischer aus. Besonders ungünstig wurde die Konjunkturlage im Tourismus, in der Transportwirtschaft und in den Konsumgüterbranchen eingeschätzt.
Umsatzentwicklung, Investitionsverhalten und Erwartungen bezüglich der Normalisierung. Ergebnisse der vierten Sonderbefragung zur COVID-19-Krise im Rahmen des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Oktober 2020 (Revenue Developments, Investment Behaviour and Expectations for Normalisation. Results of the Fourth Special Survey on the COVID-19 Crisis as Part of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest of October 2020)
WIFO-Konjunkturtest Sonderausgabe, 2020, (4), 14 Seiten
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Europäische Kommission, GD Wirtschaft und Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Online seit: 16.11.2020 0:00
Im WIFO-Konjunkturtest vom Oktober wurden zum vierten Mal Sonderfragen zu den Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise gestellt. Die Unternehmen rechnen für 2020 aufgrund der COVID-19-Krise durchschnittlich mit einem Umsatzrückgang von 12%. Für 2021 sind die meisten Unternehmen unsicher und skeptisch und erwarten geringe Zuwächse (Durchschnitt +1,8%). Allerdings sind die Meldungen heterogen. Rund 24% der Unternehmen befürchten für 2021 weitere Umsatzeinbußen, 30% eine Steigerung. Das Investitionsverhalten wurde durch die COVID-19-Krise stark beeinflusst: Rund 60% der Unternehmen mit geplanten Investitionen im Jahr 2020 geben an, Investitionsprojekte verschoben oder gestrichen zu haben. 57% aller befragten Unternehmen nutzen die Investitionsprämie, die zusätzliche Investitionen und Vorzieheffekte auslöst. Die Unternehmen sind aber skeptisch in Bezug auf eine rasche Normalisierung ihrer Geschäftslage: Die Mehrheit erwartet eine Normalisierung in frühestens sechs Monaten.
This paper examines return and onward migration of immigrants to Austria, taking into account immigration type, country of origin, and employment outcomes. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative records of the Austrian Social Security Database of immigrants who entered Austria between 2009 and 2017. It is the first such study for Austria. We find that about 25 percent of immigrants leave Austria within less than a year of their arrival and 50 percent within 5.5 years. Return and onward migration is closely correlated with immigration type and origin. Refugees have a very low likelihood to leave Austria, whereas labour migrants have a substantially higher one. Women are more likely to stay than men and immigrants from Turkey have the lowest return probabilities among all origin groups. Emigration is also closely correlated with labour market success, the likelihood to stay depending on the speed of labour market integration. The consequence of these patterns is that the composition of the stock of immigrants living in Austria differs from the structure of new immigrants entering the country. We apply dynamic microsimulation to project the size and structure of the first-generation immigrant population in Austria as well as its labour market integration up to 2060. Our simulation results suggest that eventually, over 90 percent of the resident immigrant population attains at least some labour market experience and that the differences in return and onward migration across immigrant groups work to shift the structure of the immigrant population in the direction of third-country nationals.
In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades. Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of the working population.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (614), 42 Seiten
Online seit: 27.10.2020 0:00
We propose a modelling approach involving a series of small-scale factor models. They are connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality tests. GDP forecasts are established across the production, income and expenditure accounts within a disaggregated approach. This method merges the benefits of large-scale macroeconomic and small-scale factor models, rendering our Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models (CDFM) useful for model-consistent forecasting on a large scale. While the CDFM has a simple structure, its forecasts outperform those of a wide range of competing models and of professional forecasters. Moreover, the CDFM allows forecasters to introduce their own judgment and hence produce conditional forecasts.
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