WIFO Reports on Austria

Die WIFO Reports on Austria sind englischsprachige Kurzanalysen zu ökonomischen Entwicklungen in Österreich. Es werden regelmäßig Beiträge zu den Themen Konjunktur, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Makroökonomie, Arbeitsmarkt, Digitalisierung, Cash-Flow und Lohnstückkosten veröffentlicht, die die wesentlichen Entwicklungen in diesen Bereichen in Österreich zusammenfassen.

Die Artikel der Vorgänger "WIFO Bulletin" und "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: WIFO Bulletin, Austrian Economic Quarterly  

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Aktuelle Ausgaben (14 Treffer)

The business cycle assessments of Austrian companies show a stable development of the economy across almost all sectors in October, except in the retail trade sector. Nevertheless, the WIFO-Konjunkturampel (economic traffic light) shows red and thus signals that the peak of the economic upturn has probably been reached. Capacity utilisation fell slightly in manufacturing but remained above average in all sectors. As in the previous quarter, the "shortage of labour force" was cited as the most important obstacle to business activity. In addition, shortages of materials and inputs caused by supply bottlenecks hampered business activity in manufacturing, construction and retailing.
The Austrian economy is set to recover significantly after the COVID-19 recession. This development will be driven by a strong international economic expansion (2022) and fiscal policy measures such as the investment premium and the tax reform. Hence, domestic demand becomes more pronounced over the forecast horizon. In 2022, GDP is expected to rise by 5.0 percent. Influenced by the presumed cool-down in the international economy, domestic growth is set to ease to 1.8 percent by 2026 (Ø 2022-2026 +2.6 percent p.a.). In comparison to the euro area, annual GDP growth in Austria is on average 0.2 percentage points higher. Trend output will grow by an average of 1.5 percent p.a. over the forecast period (WIFO method). Due to "forced savings" formed in 2020-21 as a result of COVID 19 restrictions and the relief provided to private households by the tax reform, private consumption will grow at an above-average rate of 3.1 percent p.a. (volume terms; 2022 +6.4 percent). In 2022, investment still benefits from frontloading effects triggered by the investment premium but loses momentum in 2023. From 2024, the investment allowance and the reductions in the corporate tax rate will stimulate investment. Foreign trade evolves in a particularly dynamic manner in 2022, which is due to the postponed rebound effect in international travel. The rapid economic expansion results in a strong decline in unemployment: in 2022, the unemployment rate (7.3 percent) will fall below the pre-crisis level. By the end of the forecast period, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.1 percent. Strong international demand, supply shortages, the return of VAT rates to pre-crisis levels in some sectors and CO2 pricing, will push inflation to 3.1 percent in 2022 (Ø 2023-2026 +2.1 percent p.a.). The budget deficit declines from 6.3 percent in 2021 to 2.4 percent in 2022 (2026 +0.4 percent). The tax reform increases the budget deficit ratio on average by 0.6 percentage points p.a.
In 2020, there was a marked year-on-year increase in unit labour costs in the manufacturing sector of 6.0 percent. Austria's unit labour cost position deteriorated both relative to the weighted average of all its trading partners (+1.7 percentage points) and relative to its EU trading partners (+1.5 percentage points). Despite this overall development, the unit labour cost position relative to Germany, Austria's most important trading partner (+0.1 percentage point) is largely unaltered. Due to differences in policy design and implementation of the COVID-19 aid measures (especially with regard to short-time work) across countries as well as the statistical treatment of these measures in the Quarterly National Accounts, the data underlying our calculations for 2020 are distorted and comparability across countries is limited.
WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, (11), 16 Seiten
Online seit: 08.11.2021 0:00
Value added in Austria grew significantly in the second quarter 2021, especially in the crisis-hit sectors. However, growth weakened again with the increase in the incidence of infections from August 2021. The renewed COVID-19 wave will again dampen the catch-up process in certain service sectors in the fourth quarter. The economic upswing is, hence, heterogeneous across sectors, but it is extremely strong overall. The labour market is also recovering rapidly but will suffer a temporary setback from the fourth COVID-19 wave. At the same time, inflation will continue to accelerate, while monetary policy – in line with the ECB's new strategy – will remain expansionary. The tax reform coming into force in 2022 is not taken into account in this forecast. The forecast period therefore only covers the year 2021.
Economic assessments of Austrian companies continued to improve across all sectors in July. Sentiment also brightened in the sectors recently affected directly or indirectly by lockdowns. The WIFO-Konjunkturampel (economic traffic light) continues to show green, confirming the trend of a strong economic upswing. Accordingly, capacity utilisation improved noticeably. For the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, companies cited the "shortage of labour force" as the most important obstacle to their activities. In manufacturing and construction, more companies than ever before reported a "shortage of materials or capacity" as the most important constraint.
Austria's performance in the digital transformation has been average by European standards. This is illustrated by a monitoring of selected indicators on the digital transformation of various areas of the economy and society. The growing importance of digital change has become quite evident in the current COVID-19 crisis: as digitalisation now affects all areas of life, basic digital skills and the use of digital infrastructure are no longer relevant for companies and the workforce only, but just as much for students and the rest of the population.
WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, (8), 14 Seiten
Online seit: 30.07.2021 0:00
The global economic outlook has improved significantly since the last forecast. This also has consequences for the expected recovery in Austria. Leading indicators point to the beginning of a boom phase, which in 2021 will be mainly driven by the favourable industrial economy. In 2022, tourism will contribute disproportionately to domestic economic growth. After the decline in the previous year (–6.3 percent), WIFO expects real GDP growth of 4 and 5 percent for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, (7), 18 Seiten
Online seit: 21.06.2021 0:00
The COVID-19 pandemic and the official measures taken to contain it left a clear mark on the labour market in 2020. The drastic slump in the spring was followed by a recovery phase driven by the rebound of the economy and the summer tourist season. At the end of the year, however, the situation on the labour market deteriorated again due to the renewed lockdown in November and the wide absence of the winter season. Despite an increase in employment and a decline in unemployment, the crisis on the labour market is still not over in spring 2021. Unemployment in particular is still far away from the pre-crisis levels.
Economic development in 2020 was driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictions imposed to contain it. The Austrian economy recorded a massive slump. Private consumption was hit particularly hard, as were tourism, transport, trade, personal services and cultural and leisure facilities. The expansion of short-time working regimes supported per capita incomes. The COVID-19 crisis also had an impact on inflation, with unprocessed food and services becoming more expensive, while petroleum products dampened price increases.
WIFO Reports on Austria, 2021, (5), 14 Seiten
Online seit: 30.04.2021 0:00
Economic activity is currently heavily dependent on the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. To frame the range of future economic development, this forecast outlines two scenarios: in the opening scenario, the restrictions are completely lifted in the course of spring. The lockdown scenario, on the other hand, assumes a renewed closure of retail and personal services in April 2021. In the first scenario, economic activity picks up already in spring, with GDP expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2021 and 4.3 percent in 2022. In the lockdown scenario, the recovery is delayed, with growth of 1.5 percent in 2021 and 4.7 percent in 2022. Private consumption and travel are still weaker in 2022 than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the labour market, the crisis will remain visible for some time.
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apl. Prof. Dr. Hans Pitlik

Funktion: Ökonom (Senior Economist), Chefredaktion WIFO-Monatsberichte und WIFO Reports on Austria

Tamara Fellinger

Tätigkeitsbereiche: Redaktion, Website, Publikationen, Abonnentenbetreuung

Tatjana Weber

Tätigkeitsbereiche: Redaktion, Website, Publikationen, Abonnentenbetreuung