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WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

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Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

 

WIFO Bulletin (97 Treffer)

WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(14), S.131-144
Mit finanzieller Unterstützung von: Jubiläumsfonds der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank
Online seit: 02.11.2018 0:00
 
This paper analyses the effects of the introduction of the tax relief for families family bonus (Familienbonus) and supplementary child benefit (Kindermehrbetrag) on household income in Austria, using the WIFO-Micromod microsimulation model that is based on the EU-SILC data. The average yearly (person-weighted) equivalised household income increases by 320 €, which corresponds to a relative increase of 1.4 percent. For the families concerned, the reform leads to an increase in the corresponding income by 733 € or 3.1 percent and to a reduction in the average yearly income tax burden by 1,556 €. The effects are most pronounced in the medium range of the household income distribution. The total personal income tax revenue decreases by 1.5 billion € per year.
 
Leading indicators still point to favourable cyclical conditions in Austria until the end of 2018. GDP growth for the year as a whole is set to reach 3 percent. Currency crises in some emerging market countries, lack of clarity about the further course of US trade policy, and uncertainty surrounding the terms of Brexit increasingly strain international trade and with it business activity in highly export-oriented economies. These factors will dampen GDP growth also in Austria, which is expected to receed to 2 percent in 2019.
 
The Austrian economy continued to grow at a strong pace in the late summer of 2018, although the trend toward declining unemployment slowed. In the euro area, growth remains stable, albeit modest. The US economy has benefitted from expansive fiscal policy, posting particularly strong growth rates. Recent trade-policy signals have been stoking uncertainty. This, in combination with a sharp depreciation in emerging market currencies, has had a dampening effect on global trade, with potential knock-on effects for export-oriented industrialised economies.
WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(11), S.96-106
Online seit: 31.10.2018 0:00
 
In 2016, the cash-flow-to-sales ratio of the Austrian manufacturing sector reached an estimated 10.0 percent, a value higher than the previous year's ratio of 9.4 percent. The ratio should have further increased to 11.0 percent in 2017. The rising profit-ability ratio of manufacturing corresponds with sound economic growth performance of the sector. Its real value-added growth rate amounted to 1.3 percent in 2016 and 6.7 percent in 2017, respectively. According to additional estimates of a dynamic panel-econometric model at the industry level, the cash-flow-to-sales ratio in manufacturing will continue its up-ward trend in 2018.
 
After a rather sluggish growth at the beginning of the year, economic activity in the USA gained considerably momentum in the second quarter. In the EU, following a weak start, economic growth stabilised in the second quarter, although it slowed again in the euro area. The economy in Austria continues to expand strongly. Despite growth slowing down in comparison to previous quarters, GDP continues to expand faster than in the average of euro area countries. Unemployment dropped again in July.
 
After the strong expansion in the previous year, demand and output in Austria should maintain a similar pace in 2018, with GDP growth expected at 3.2 percent. Leading indicators nevertheless foreshadow an increasing slowdown in momentum. GDP growth will be noticeably weaker in 2019 (+2.2 percent). Heightened uncertainty concerning the external policy environment amplifies the downward risks from the economic outlook of March 2018.
WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(8), S.62-74
Online seit: 19.07.2018 0:00
 
Family benefits in Austria, as a percentage of GDP, slightly exceed the OECD average. Monetary benefits largely dominate benefits in kind, although their share has decreased markedly since 2000. At the same time, several reforms within the monetary benefit system have encouraged fathers' involvement and improved the reconciliation of work and family for both parents. Austrian family benefits, in a narrower definition, have increased from 6.6 billion € in 2000 to nearly 10.3 billion € in 2016. At a ratio of 2.9 percent of GDP in 2016, family benefits have edged down from 3.1 percent in 2000 and have virtually stagnated since 2006. Since the population up to age 19 is in secular decline, per-capita family benefits follow a long-term upward trend, rising from 3,540 € per child in 2000 to almost 6,000 € nominal in 2016.
 
Austrian GDP grew by 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the previous period, after +0.9 percent in the third and fourth quarter 2017. As a result, the economic momentum continued from the previous year and the boom phase continues. The positive development of the real economy is also reflected in the labour market in an increase in employment and a decline in unemployment. Inflation is currently still unusually restrained.
WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(6), S.45-54
Online seit: 04.07.2018 0:00
 
Following the financial and economic crisis leading to the recession of 2008-09, and the sluggish economic activity between 2012 and 2015 (+0.7 percent p.a.), economic growth gained sustained momentum from mid-2016. For 2017 and 2018, WIFO expects annual GDP growth of 2.9 and 3.2 percent, respectively. An average annual increase of 2.1 percent is expected for the forecast period 2018 to 2022, up from a modest +1.3 percent p.a. recorded for 2013 to 2017. The expected rate would thereby exceed the euro area average by ¼ percentage point. The favourable external business environment will stimulate export growth (+4.1 percent p.a.) and encourage investment in new machinery and equipment. Rising disposable household income will allow private consumption to gain 1½ percent per year, after +0.7 percent p.a. in the previous five-year period. Buoyant growth in 2018 and 2019 will stimulate job creation beyond the increase in the labour force and lead to lower unemployment. However, from 2020 onwards, labour supply may again grow in excess of demand, with the unemployment rate edging up from 7.3 percent in 2019 to 7.6 percent in 2022. Inflation remains moderate over the medium term, and the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average should narrow. The Consumer Price Index is expected to increase at an average 1.9 percent per year. Under our assumptions for future business conditions and policy settings, the general government account may reach balance as from the middle of the forecast period, both in headline (Maastricht) and structural terms. As a result, the ratio of government debt to nominal GDP would fall to around 63 percent by 2022, down by 20 percentage points from 2016.
WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(5), S.38-44
Online seit: 07.06.2018 0:00
 
In the first quarter of 2018, the Austrian economy grew by 0.8 percent compared to the previous quarter, thus similar to the course of the previous year. Along with a buoyant domestic economy, that growth is underpinned by foreign trade, stimulated by a dynamic global economy. In line with that, the Austrian labour market is also continuing to show a positive trend.
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