FIDELIO 2: Full Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input Output Model. An Econometric Input-Output model for the
EU
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Abgeschlossen: 2015
The main aim of this project is to strengthen and expand an existing econometric input-output model for the European Union
member countries (FIDELIO) to be used in policy simulations. This improvement of the features of the current version of FIDELIO
comprises the extension to non-EU countries, the inclusion of different income levels of households, the endogenisation of
the environmental module and the change of the base year. An additional objective is the further development of the model
to be able to run two real policy applications related (but not limited) to the economic, social and environmental impact
assessments of Ecodesign regulation and fiscal instruments towards the analysis of the existence of double dividend. The enhancement
of the robustness of the model outcomes by means of confidence intervals, sensitivity analyses and possibly Monte Carlo simulations
also contributes to the project objectives.
Forschungsbereich:Klima-, Umwelt- und Ressourcenökonomie – Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
This report serves as an update of "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output model for the
EU 27" by Kratena et al. (2013), i.e., the manual of the first version of the FIDELIO model. FIDELIO fits into the generation
of macroeconomic multi-sectoral input-output models whose earliest contributions include the Cambridge MDM (Barker, 1976)
and the INFORUM (Almon et al., 1974) models for the UK and the USA, respectively. Such econometric input-output models have
grown over time in terms of complexity and scope and are used for macroeconomic modelling purposes alongside other types of
general equilibrium models (including DSGE ones). This report explores the theoretical foundations of the latest version of
the model, FIDELIO 2 (which has been developed between 2014 and 2016), and contains a description of its main features. With
respect to its initial version, the model has been extended in a number of ways. For instance, and without entering into detail
at this stage, seven non-EU countries are now included in the model (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the USA)
in addition to the 27 EU countries already included in the first version; both trade and household final demand are now modelled
in a considerably more complex way than before; there is an environmental block dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, and
the base year is 2007 rather than 2005. Thus, it was deemed necessary to present all the new model characteristics in an organic
way via the present technical report. The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a concise macro-overview
of FIDELIO 2 which relies very much on the first section of the FIDELIO 1 manual by Kratena et al. (2013). Section 2 presents
the economic theories underlying the core blocks of FIDELIO 2. This report serves two main purposes. First, it is an adequate
resource for the readers who are interested in the model's main features. Second, it facilitates the process of understanding
all the details of FIDELIO 2 for those who want to learn the logic and the theory behind its construction. Such readers are
expected to grasp the general structure of the model by reading Section 1, helped by the overview of the model's main economic
flows contained in Figure 1. Then, Section 2 goes through the theoretical foundations of the various model blocks.
We estimate the effects of the Austrian tax reform of 2015-16 by using the econometric input-output model FIDELIO, which features
an in-depth treatment of both private and public households' revenues, expenditures, budgets and consumption as well as price
transmission. According to the simulations, the reform will, to some extent, succeed in boosting domestic demand, with private
consumption rising by almost € 2.5 billion; both net output and GDP will rise perceptibly by € 290 million and € 1.35 billion,
respectively. Among the sectors that profit most from the proposed changes in the tax regime are those with high income elasticities
(and low import shares): real estate activities, (retail) trade, and financial services. The food production sector aside,
manufacturing will experience very modest gains only, as a large share of its products is imported. High income elasticity,
however, leads to moderate gains for hotels and restaurants, in spite of a higher value-added tax on hotel services and the
upward pressure on prices due to fraud-preventing measures (especially the obligation to introduce cash registers).
Kurt Kratena, Gerhard Streicher, Umed Temurshoev, Antonio F. Amores, Iñaki Arto, Ignazio Mongelli, Frederik Neuwahl, José-Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, Valeria Andreoni
Auftraggeber: EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH
Online seit: 29.05.2013 0:00
In this report we present complete information about the Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model
for the EU 27 (FIDELIO 1). First, the macro overview of the model is discussed, which presents the main mechanisms of interactions
between various blocks of FIDELIO. The second chapter explains the main economic theories underlying FIDELIO consumption,
production and labour market blocks. Here, further econometric approaches for estimation of the parameters of all behavioural
equations and their results are presented. Then, derivation of all the necessary base-year data (e.g., various commodity use
structure and price structure matrices, trade matrix, base-year residuals, etc.) are discussed in detail. All FIDELIO equations
are presented (with discussions) in Chapter 4. Finally, a full description of the data sources is given in the last chapter.
It will become clear from this description document that FIDELIO is appropriate for the impact assessment purposes of diverse
(economic and/or environmental) policy questions of our times.